Curious - is the entire world in a recession?

[hhunterjr]

We all know that the United States is in the midst of a recession right now. Hopefully, we'll pull out of it by 2004.

I know that Germany and Japan are having some troubles with their economies. But what about the other major countries of the world - Is there a worldwide recession right now?

- Harold Hunter Jr.
Patent Attorney

 

[Zoobar]

Not in Canada. Our economy is booming. Christmas retail sales were up 9% from the previous year.

 

[Duke]

The U.S. is not in a recession according to the U.S. Goverenment. They say it ended several quarters ago. The retail stores that just went through their worst Christmas season in 30 years would probably tend to disagree.

 

[Nic]

not in malta

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by Duke of Earl
The U.S. is not in a recession according to the U.S. Goverenment. They say it ended several quarters ago. The retail stores that just went through their worst Christmas season in 30 years would probably tend to disagree.

However "online" shopping was up 23%. The government is not tracking those sales and taking that into account. If those shoppers had made purchases from physical locations I wonder if things might have been different. I suspect so. The gub'mint is going to have to add this factor into retail sales figures (or lack of).

Plus this Christmas buying season had been shortened by one week since Thanksgiving almost fell on the last day in November (normally it's the 2nd to the last week in November).

just an fyi

izopod

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by lotsofissues
Online salles are not much of a difference.
Online accounted for 2.4% of the overall figure in 2001. Only slightly higher this year.

Your source???

Here is mine:

http://www.online.ie/business/latest/viewer.adp?article=1912965

Online sales rose by 23pc over Christmas
Business & Finance 27 Dec 2002



Internet retailers in the US saw sales rise 23pc to USD 7.92 billion over the holiday season from November 25 to Christmas Day compared to the same period last year from November 15 to December 25, according to a survey by BizRate.com which monitors online sales.

Despite the fewer number of shopping days this year, the e-commerce research company said the figure beat its estimate of a 24 pc rise.

Shopping hit a peak on Dec 9 at USD 376 m, compared to USD 253.8 m on the busiest shopping day last year on December 10, it said.

Amazon.com said it received orders for more than 56 m items over the period Nov 1 to Dec 23 in the busiest holiday season in the online retailer's eight-year history.

On its largest sales day on Dec 9, it notched up some 1.7 m items in orders, it said.

The video and DVD of 'The Lord of the Rings: the Fellowship of the Ring' was the biggest selling item.

 

[yahoohaha]

if i can choice any place to live, i will stay home.

bush will take care everything.

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by lotsofissues
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/18403.html

My comments were about the online 2002 Christmas shopping season. This article is dated June 27, 2002.

izopod

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by lotsofissues
Online salles are not much of a difference.

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by lotsofissues
And I maintain what I said. Internet sales are minor and do not make a significant difference.
The article is dated but are you disputing that the percentages can't be applied 6 months later?--That suddenly internet sales constitute a much larger portion of all sales?

What I am saying is that more and more people are choosing to shop online instead of hitting the malls during the CHRISTMAS shopping season. That translates into less dollars at the registers. That is what I've been debating.

When they say retail sales are down this Christmas at least a part of it could be explained by increased online sales (24% increase over last year).

Izopod

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by lotsofissues

The article is dated but are you disputing that the percentages can't be applied 6 months later?--That suddenly internet sales constitute a much larger portion of all sales?

6 month old news on the internet = lifetime

This train is moving full steam ahead.


izopod

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by lotsofissues

Not enough to change the consensus opinion that holiday sales were very weak.

More online holiday shopping = less money reported for Retail sales.

As I stated before, there isn't the statistics out there on how much is lost at the registers, but I am sure in time they will have those figures.


izopod

 

[kingdon]

I did OK this season, but nothing like I did last year, last year was a winner. I wouldn't say this was a better year by any account. And everyone I compete with was singing the same song of what's wrong. So I don't know what's being fed out there, but I didn't see it on my plate this season.

In fact I feel like big brother is trying to paint a positive picture in hopes that it will catch on. But my bank account doesn't reflect this story of booming growth on the internet. And I don't know anyone personally that's happy about this season.

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by kingdon
I did OK this season, but nothing like I did last year, last year was a winner. I wouldn't say this was a better year by any account. And everyone I compete with was singing the same song of what's wrong. So I don't know what's being fed out there, but I didn't see it on my plate this season.

In fact I feel like big brother is trying to paint a positive picture in hopes that it will catch on. But my bank account doesn't reflect this story of booming growth on the internet. And I don't know anyone personally that's happy about this season.

I'm assuming you are in the "online music industry". If this is true, that particular industry was hard hit. MORE companies jumped on that bandwagon this year than probably any other sector. More competition = less sales to individual proprietors.

Offline sales of music was WAY down as well. I think people have finally realized, the new, up and coming music can't hold a candle to the old stuff. All these boy bands, and girl soloists all sound and look alike in my view. If I were a kid, I'd spend my money on gaming....which is the sector that probably recorded an increase in sales this Christmas ---

izopod

 

[Duke]

The music industry is in dire straits. They are being hammered on many different fronts. The music being issued completely sucks, the product is grossly overpriced (especially when compared to DVD's which are booming), CD copying and music downloads have wiped out untold numbers of sales, etc. USA Today ran a cover story a few months ago about 5 major problem areas that had converged to create the perfect storm in the music industry. They are in a tailspin they don't know how to get out of.

 

[kingdon]

Well I know about the music scene, and I agree it's really bad. What I was referring to was my wholesale business, leather jackets, wall clocks and sterling silver jewelry. This is what puts me through school. This is what I was referring to, but I agree with the whole music downward spiral. I give mine away for free, rather have a fan.

Other than that I'm beat from working on my house all day, and tomorrow will be filled with new curse combinations and a few less hairs, gotta finish before the 7th, bye bye for now.

Don

 

[heatfan]

Originally posted by ozone
the us gov says we're not having a ressession because if people believe we are having a recession then it will continue.. if people believe its over then they will begin to invest again and spend their money and all that fun stuff that is good for the economy

Short version: They lie as hell

 

[mole]

Threats of war between the States and Iraq and its potential for escalation and whiplash always lead to very negative sentiments throughout the world.

We will all have to bunker it out. I see positive recovery only in Q4 2003 onwards.

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by mole
Threats of war between the States and Iraq and its potential for escalation and whiplash always lead to very negative sentiments throughout the world.

We will all have to bunker it out. I see positive recovery only in Q4 2003 onwards.

My predictions are that we will come out of this just fine. There will be no war in Iraq. If there was going to be a war we'd already have a lot more troops over there by now. Major call-ups of reserve units would have had to have taken place at least 5 months ago. It takes at least that long to prepare the battlefield. My guess is we will go in and take out suspected weapon sites. Saddam will remain in power but essentially will be defanged. We we are hoping his military will turn on him in time to oust him. According to a high ranking former Iraqi military officer there is a good chance that might happen. The Iraqi military is tired of being his security force, protecting his wealth, while his own people aren't privvy to such a lavish lifestyle. The alternative is to be bombed into submission by coalition forces.

All this is talk of war has had a "silent" positive effect as it relates to the US dollar. It has lowered the value of the dollar. Which makes US goods cheaper overseas thus creating a higher demand for them. I'm not sure if you realize this but the US gov't actually would like the $ weaker for this reason. Politically it's not a viable option which is why you never hear a Treasury Secretary talk about economic policies that would devalue the $$.

With a lower dollar, a new economic team that will be pro growth, a US congress that will be pro-business, and a quick end to the Iraq situation, be ready for a robust Q2.

The only variable that would wreak havoc to the US economy is another terrorist attack. I'm not worried about the North Korea situation as China, who is their biggest ally, does not want a lot of nukes on the Korean pennisula. China supplies them with 80% of all goods to North Korea. If they continue on this path, China will cut them off. Why?? With China's admission into the WTO this past year and with the US ending our yearly Favorable Nation policies, the Chinese would benefit greatly in the world's view on being able to neutralize the situation. Just wait. Next week a stern warning from China will be publically sent to North Korea after they expel those inspectors. US stocks will rally on that news.

So that is my take on things for 2003. Hope you all have a prosperous and healthy year!!

izopod

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by heatfan


Short version: They lie as hell

I remember thinking this back in the 1970's. However in 2002 with the internet at my finger tips it is harder for them to lie as much

The OMB and GAO both have web sites:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
http://www.gao.gov/


izopod