octobus said:
Look what happened to exclusive backorders!
Yes, backorders were my entry into domains, but the game was up over a year ago now! Pool, whilst initially a usual source of domains, have irrevocably changed the market, and Snapnames followed to snaffle the most prolific source of good drops.
Godaddy was really the last bastion, but the success rate there was low anyway and with greater awareness of value, good drops were starting to dry up and prices have gone through the roof. Most drop speculators seemed to be migrating to trying to pick up value in the secondary market, many pestering others with rediculously low offers.
The ccTLD market seemed like a natural progression, but generally cost are high and apart from Germany interest is limited.
It was that that convinced me that new registrations IDN were the way forward. IDNs might seem risky, but at tenth of the price of backorders to me it seemed like a fair gamble, as the keywords that were available were potentially much more interesting. Of course the big unknown is to what extent they will be generally abopted and they are of course more complicated to research and administer.
Having put together a very promising portfolio, apart from the odd lead or spark of inspiration, I am now largely sitting on my hands. The reason for that is even here the opportunites are gradually diminishing and I could spend 10x as much without even doubling the potential value of my portfolio. If my strategy is correct, I will never need anymore, and if it is wrong then further investment will only excerbate the situation.
The bottom line is that speculative potential is greatest in a developing market place. Mature markets mean competition, low margins and consolidation forcing many smaller players out altogether. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the like of Pool and Snapnames develop into large scale holders of the domains that drop to them, as they grow to realise that instant auctions do not produce the highest returns. Once that happens the scope for individual speculators in dropping domains may start to vanish completely.
There will of course be an ongoing market in topical domains, i.e those registered after reading the morning newspaper, but todays news is tomorrows fish and chip wrapper.
Any one else got any comments of future direction of domain market?
Best Regards
Dave Wrixon