Well, this is just my take:
Commerce Department probably under political pressure from the White House put the mockers on the last launch.
Emboldened by their success with Online Gaming, White House now has Internet Porn in its gun sites.
There have been frantic negotiations going on behind the scenes and the Commerce Department has now extracted enough concessions for this to go ahead. It is like that it not just stick but perhaps a lot of carrot as well.
If .xxx was permitted on the basis that the annual reg fee included a licence, and that fee covered the cost of policing the Internet as well as an additional substantial contribution to the coffers, then there would be no real grounds not to let the launch go ahead. However, on that basis .xxx could not compete with other extension, and licensing just one extension would be pointless. There would also be huge opposition from existing vested interests.
It would seem that the logical quid pro quo would be be to make the annual registration fee about $1000, possibly even more. To ensure that .xxx was a success, it would be necessary to ban all pornographic material on any other extension, at least for the US. They managed that with gaming so it is achievable with porn.
It is likely that annual licensing will also be contingent on satisfactory financial accounts being submitted each year.
I am sure that those with successful dot com businesses will be offered the opportunity to be Grandfathered across into the new extension. Obviously, if there is too much disruption to the business then the earnings potential of the industry from the Treasury's point of view would be diminished, and that would be counter-productive.
It is likely from the average domainer's perspective that the chances of landing a good name are going to be remote. It is also likely that the overheads of speculating in the extension are also going to be prohibitive.
k:
