It's a good question, made even more interesting because of the ever increasing availability of discounted,
Limited Exchange Snaps.
Your whole gameplan as to the application of LE Snaps has to be one of great stratigic planning. Obviously, if your applying LE snaps to extremely valuable names, your chances of depleting your exchanges to 0, and thus losing your investment, are very high.
Don't get me wrong, LE snaps have their palce in your drop catching arsenal. You just have to be extremely selective with the names you choose to place them on.
One positve aspect of LE Snaps are that they will force you to leave Snaps on a name longer than you might have, allowing you not to have to deal with "De-Snap Remorse" You know, that sick feeling you have when you see a good name drop that you used to own the snap on?...and now someone else does? Ya, the name you took your "unlimited exchange" snap off of to place it on what you thought was a better name?
The name you have your eye on might be a prime candidate for an LE snap. It sounds like it has a chance of cycling through to "pending delete status". You have to acertain how badly you "want" it. Are you wanting it for straight name resale? If so then spending the $39 becomes more of a delema. Are you wanting it for development? Then the $39 is less of an issue. And don't forget your $8.95 NW bid could still beat your LE Snap head to head, meaning you've lost one exchange but still own a 2 exchange snap. There is still roughly 3 months before it will drop. It won't even expire for a few days so the chances of owner renewal are still decent and all this is moot.
If it does expire, many sets of eyes will see it as it winds its way down that slippery slope, through the erie caves known as "registrar-hold". Then down the murky waters of "redemption grace period" and finaly falling into the firey chasms of "Pending Delete" The chance that someone will put a snap on the name between now and then are quite possible.
One option you have is to place the snap on it, watch your $8.95 NW bid, if there are no higher bids up to the 4th or 5th day of the "pending Delete" cycle, then remove the snap and hope there are no SnapSnipers lurking. The one negative is that you are tying up the LE Snap for one quarter of it's life just as a safety net or blocker. But hey, the prime objective is to get the name for the least ammount of money right?
Just decide how badly you want the name.