I ran a little test for those in favor of WLS

[JMJ]

A liitle test of random words ran for snaps at snapnames. Now the likelyhood of these being caught is what 10%? Think about what these numbers will be if it's 100% guarantee. Also have a look at some of the expiration dates.

Two letter 3 out of 10

ac.com snaped expiration 2008
ah.com snaped ex dec 2005
ai.com snaped ex 2008



Three letter 3 out of 10

aoc.com mar 2005
aod.com mar 2005
aol.com sept 2004



Two word casino 2 out of 10

casinogame.com 20-nov-2004
internetroulette.com 17-apr-2004



Random top 500 keywords 4 out of 10

blink.com 11-oct-2005
gamecheats.com 24-jan-2005
puppies.com 01-sep-2013
wallpapers.com 26-jun-2005


List of names ran
onlinedegrees
sensual
gamecheats
legs
wallpapers
Blink
puppies
people
swimwear
musicvideos



Animals 4 out of 10

cat.com 26-mar-2005
chicken.com 28-dec-2004
cow.com 18-jan-2006
crocodile.com 24-mar-2004



Colors 5 out of 10

blue.com Oct 29, 2004
brown.com Nov 26, 2004
crimson.com Apr 27, 2004
gray.com May 05, 2004
indigo.com May 06, 2005




Random one worders 2 out of 10

boring.com Apr 19, 2004
colorful.com 19-jun-2004




names ran
boring
brave
bright
calm
cautious
clean
clever
cold
colorful
complete


Womens names 3 out of 10

catherine.com 12-apr-2004
cheryl.com 29-jul-2004
christine.com 31-oct-2006

 

[opportunitymagic]

very interesting

 

[JMJ]

Yep and this is not including the .net's .org's and .co.uk's that were snaped also. In addition, consider the fact that there might be 3 or 4 exchanges. You don't have just one or two big players to reckon with people. You have small players just like me and you .

I hate to say it but WLS would make me change my game. And yes even as much of a small player as I am I will be forking out for 50+ snaps a year at 150-200 chances of getting one name that will cover my costs.

 

[JMJ]

On another note. If Verisign gets this through do you really think .info .biz .us and others won't follow suit? They didn't miss a beat when it came to the redemption period.

 

[adoptabledomains]

Think about what these numbers will be if it's 100% guarantee. Also have a look at some of the expiration dates.

The real math with WLS on a fair to good name:

"100% guaranteed" IF it drops x Odds of dropping @10% = 10% chance

If not expiring for 2 years = 2 x $35 annual WLS subscription = $70

Odds of dropping first year (if paid up) = .00001%
Odds of dropping second year = 10%
Average over 2 years = 5%
100% guarantee to cost $35/year with no promises.

Result: $70 for two year wait on 5% overall chance to get name. If paid up for more years, the results get even worse. But wait until later and someone else may have the WLS first. Premium names probably have much lower chances of dropping in the first place than 10% or even 5%.

Assumption: WLS cost is $35/year

another acronym: WLS = Worthless Lottery Stub.