Izopod's 2003 Predictions for the Domain Industry

[izopod]

Here are my top 10 predictions for 2003.

1. Verisign will sell their "Network Solutions" part of their business to a new player on the block. Verisign will now get back to it's core business of Secure Site Services. This industry is going to be HUGE in the next few years.

2. The new gTLDs (.biz/.info) will become more ubiquitous in print and television media advertisements. Moreso in the United States then in Europe.

3. Vint Cerf will be selected to replace Stuart Lynn. Dr. Cerf is seen as someone who is respected in global circles irregardless of what you think about him. ICANN is in need of a high profile person to take on the role of CEO. They have major crediblity problems and his stature as "Father of the Internet" would help ICANN's longterm viability. I realize this is a long shot prediction given he is actually head of the Search Committee, but keep your eyes wide open!

4. We will have a DNF get together. This event will be where the idea for a Domain Trade Assoc. w/ some muscle is formed. The IP atty's and groups have taken things too far. Some of what they want to call protected marks are actually public domain (i.e generic words). The need for a group to counteract their influence will be seen as a "must" for 2003.

5. 2003 will feel like 1999 all over again only the "grown-ups" will be in charge. The key word for the domain registrar market will be: consolidation. The need for consolidation will readily apparent after Q1 reports come out. This will drive prices of domains slightly higher, but will be matched by including more innovative services.

6. Voice-enabled ecommerce will emerge in Europe in full force by the fall of 2003. The explosion of the hand-held device market for business and personal use will fuel this up and coming sector.

7. The most valuable domain names in the world will be names that cross language barriers. This is a strength for dot info given the fact the word "info" is well known in many languages. Travel destination domain names will command the higher prices in 2003. Business names/services will remain steady.

8. Music related domain names are on the way out. Including the acronyms, Mp3, DVD, and CD. They will be seen as a negative. The technology in this sector will see a rapid change due to intellectual property rights being violated.

9. Domains that complement their TLD ending will see a spike in interest. The "www.show.biz" type names. The best one i've seen imho is "www.contact.us"

10. Finally my last predication is that the domain registration business is about to go "gimmicky". There will be more services then ever before offered when you go to purchase a domain. There could even be "instant winners". The reason for this is to "Build" loyality in a business where there is none. Price means everything, but not everyone can go as low as names have been in recent times. So to create marketshare, get ready for what I call the "Domain Sweepstakes".... Personally I wouldn't mind buying a domain whereby a "special code" is emailed to me. With that code, I just might have it selected in a monthly type drawing for a "Hawaiin Vacation"..... Aloha!!

that's it....


izopod

 

[mole]

No doubt that .info and .biz will move towards mainstream, but my guess is 2004 is where we see the real movements. The global economy is still too sluggish to propel renewed internet investments and hope for the next 12 months.

 

[adoptabledomains]

Aw, Cmon... That's not a 2003 prediction, that's your 2002 Christmas wish list.

 

[dtobias]

contact.us seems to belong to a German company that makes adhesive labels... can they be challenged for not meeting the U.S. nexus requirement?

 

[.com.net.org]

contact.us is the best .us IMHO.

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by dtobias
contact.us seems to belong to a German company that makes adhesive labels... can they be challenged for not meeting the U.S. nexus requirement?

They could be challenged for sure. I'm not sure where I stand on that nexus requirement. I myself wouldn't mind getting a dot EU domain name this year. If however they apply the same nexus requirements dot US did, then I myself wouldn't be able to get one. (wink, wink)

izopod

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by adoptabledomains
Aw, Cmon... That's not a 2003 prediction, that's your 2002 Christmas wish list.

Nope. I have a "crystal ball" in the back room I frequent often.:laugh:

On a serious note, there does need to be some forecasting in this market. When you can accurately forecast the market conditions people will become reliant on that forecast to make buying decisions. That feeling of "surety" in a market helps make it robust. You'll find that people will be more willing to spend money. More money = good thing.

If you want to know how I came up with the above predictions you'll have to trust me. I literally spend every free second reading the news, not only in the US, but in key overseas markets. Believe it or not the "news" does give you clues (if you are looking for them) as to what will happen in future months.

Quote for the day:

A market that does not have active forecasting is a market without a rudder (izopod, circa 2003)

 

[CoolHost.com]

"5. 2003 will feel like 1999 all over again only the "grown-ups" will be in charge. The key word for the domain registrar market will be: consolidation. The need for consolidation will readily apparent after Q1 reports come out. This will drive prices of domains slightly higher, but will be matched by including more innovative services."

Good read, 'Pod! Thanks.
Though this is probably widely believed to be true, I have said that Registrars in the very near future will, in fact, need to consolidate and "streamline" services. Registrars of the future will provide services such as escrow, most importantly. I think you'll see consolidation among the Registrars to include secondary market domains with easy payment, escrow, and transfer. Any of the companies now offering some or all of the latter services will be included in this consolidation. Finally, "registrations" of new domains will continue to be less expensive ... with the new Registrars making more on these value-added services. Should be interesting. Good Luck.

 

[izopod]

Excellent forecast!! This is the type of stuff we need more of. Whether it's a good or bad forecast we need it. They do have to be "accurate" though. Some people have a knack for it and others don't. The market will keep score and flock to the person who is right more often

It has just baffled me for the longest time why our market doesn't have a forecasting system in place. Almost every market in the world has some sort of "system" in place. It's there for good reason. Investors and interested buyers like forecasts. It gives them "confidence" to spend money "early" in the market instead of waiting to see what happens.

Another Quote for the day: If we didn't have weather forecasts we'd never plan on spending money on the weekend because we wouldn't know whether our plans would be ruined by rain or not. We'd probably wait until Saturday to find out.

izopod

Originally posted by CoolHost

Good read, 'Pod! Thanks.
Though this is probably widely believed to be true, I have said that Registrars in the very near future will, in fact, need to consolidate and "streamline" services. Registrars of the future will provide services such as escrow, most importantly. I think you'll see consolidation among the Registrars to include secondary market domains with easy payment, escrow, and transfer. Any of the companies now offering some or all of the latter services will be included in this consolidation. Finally, "registrations" of new domains will continue to be less expensive ... with the new Registrars making more on these value-added services. Should be interesting. Good Luck.

 

[CoolHost.com]

"Excellent forecast!!"

Moreover, I think the Registrars learned a great deal (both good and bad) with their ownership of secondary market sites (GreatDomains and Afternic, as examples). I truly believe the demand is there for existing domains already ... but the "process" (and internal systems) of actually obtaining one, some of these existing domains in an orderly, secure, timely fashion has been botched. These 'new' consolidated Registrars are going to focus on easier, faster, more secure ESCROW in order to build confidence within their customer base! No doubt about it ... in MY opinion. Thanks, again.

 

[beatz]

Originally posted by dtobias
contact.us seems to belong to a German company that makes adhesive labels... can they be challenged for not meeting the U.S. nexus requirement?

Uh....who says they don't meet the Nexus requirement?
Are you familiar with their business like do you know they have no bona fide business in the states or like the owner is definately *not* american citizen?

 

[Nic]

Originally posted by izopod
Here are my top 10 predictions for 2003.

1. Verisign will sell their "Network Solutions" part of their business to a new player on the block. Verisign will now get back to it's core business of Secure Site Services. This industry is going to be HUGE in the next few years.

2. The new gTLDs (.biz/.info) will become more ubiquitous in print and television media advertisements. Moreso in the United States then in Europe.

3. Vint Cerf will be selected to replace Stuart Lynn. Dr. Cerf is seen as someone who is respected in global circles irregardless of what you think about him. ICANN is in need of a high profile person to take on the role of CEO. They have major crediblity problems and his stature as "Father of the Internet" would help ICANN's longterm viability. I realize this is a long shot prediction given he is actually head of the Search Committee, but keep your eyes wide open!

4. We will have a DNF get together. This event will be where the idea for a Domain Trade Assoc. w/ some muscle is formed. The IP atty's and groups have taken things too far. Some of what they want to call protected marks are actually public domain (i.e generic words). The need for a group to counteract their influence will be seen as a "must" for 2003.

5. 2003 will feel like 1999 all over again only the "grown-ups" will be in charge. The key word for the domain registrar market will be: consolidation. The need for consolidation will readily apparent after Q1 reports come out. This will drive prices of domains slightly higher, but will be matched by including more innovative services.

6. Voice-enabled ecommerce will emerge in Europe in full force by the fall of 2003. The explosion of the hand-held device market for business and personal use will fuel this up and coming sector.

7. The most valuable domain names in the world will be names that cross language barriers. This is a strength for dot info given the fact the word "info" is well known in many languages. Travel destination domain names will command the higher prices in 2003. Business names/services will remain steady.

8. Music related domain names are on the way out. Including the acronyms, Mp3, DVD, and CD. They will be seen as a negative. The technology in this sector will see a rapid change due to intellectual property rights being violated.

9. Domains that complement their TLD ending will see a spike in interest. The "www.show.biz" type names. The best one i've seen imho is "www.contact.us"

10. Finally my last predication is that the domain registration business is about to go "gimmicky". There will be more services then ever before offered when you go to purchase a domain. There could even be "instant winners". The reason for this is to "Build" loyality in a business where there is none. Price means everything, but not everyone can go as low as names have been in recent times. So to create marketshare, get ready for what I call the "Domain Sweepstakes".... Personally I wouldn't mind buying a domain whereby a "special code" is emailed to me. With that code, I just might have it selected in a monthly type drawing for a "Hawaiin Vacation"..... Aloha!!

that's it....


izopod

my views on Izopod's 2003 predictions

1.
I don't think Verisgn will ever sell netsol. They are the leaders in the registration business and will not give it up so easily.

2.
Although I agree some increase will happen in the info/biz extensions, it will not however surpass the original trio . Also with the release of ICANN's new TLDs there might be a possiblity of further dilution of the previous new TLDs (info,biz,etc)


3.
ICANN is F...ED either way you look at it



5.
Sorry, I don't see how you have come to this conclusion. 2003 will pass by just like any other year...no more...no less in terms of affecting the domain indsutry

6.
That already exists.

7.
Disagree. I like dot info, but I believe .com will always be the "cross language barrier" extension.

8.
Not Necessarily. As a matter of fact DVDs will gain greater ground in terms of storage. Also MP3 format will slowly be the most ubiquitous digital music format and will be integrated will all other electronic devices and music players that will be developed

9.
Will SEE? They do already and have been for a while... inter.net tele.com cyb.org to name the few.

10.

I do however agree with you here.

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by Nic


my views on Izopod's 2003 predictions

1.
I don't think Verisgn will ever sell netsol. They are the leaders in the registration business and will not give it up so easily.

izopod's response: Verisign's stock has been in the toilet ever since it bought Net Sol. The domain industry is controlled by a private organization that has the say whether they can keep their .com registry/approve new TLDs albeit permission from the DOC. That kind of regulatory control is a lead weight imho. Also Verisign is losing registrations to upstarts like Godaddy and Enom. Granted they get $6 bucks a name for every .com reg, but that won't sit well with investors. Lastly, Verisign is losing .org/.net. With .biz and .info doing well (considering) that extra "competition" may be the last straw.

2.
Although I agree some increase will happen in the info/biz extensions, it will not however surpass the original trio . Also with the release of ICANN's new TLDs there might be a possiblity of further dilution of the previous new TLDs (info,biz,etc)

izopod's response: Marketing, Marketing, Marketing. There is going to be a push of "new products" and "services" in 2003. A new product or service is always presented in a new light or venue for purposes of attracting attention. Don't be surprised if some company doesn't try to buy the naming rights to the new building being considered built in New York.

btw: "Product pushes and services" always happen after a down turn like we've had. It's what most companies like to call a "bull run".

3.
ICANN is F...ED either way you look at it

izopod's response: Ah, until there is more public outcry I beg to differ. We can jump up and down all we want but ICANN will continue to get the nod. TO scrap this "experiment" would be seen as foolish. The powers that be will however try to "clean" things up by putting a "well-known" face on ICANN--enter Dr. Vint Cerf (Father of the internet)



5.
Sorry, I don't see how you have come to this conclusion. 2003 will pass by just like any other year...no more...no less in terms of affecting the domain indsutry

izopod's response: Many registrar companies have been bleeding for some time. Q1 will be when most of those companies are bought up. As for the rosy picture for 2003. I am placing on bets early on a Bush administration wanting to get the economic ball rolling for 2004 (payroll tax cuts, capital gain cuts, dividend cuts...you name it)

6.
That already exists.

izopod's response: Voice- Enabled Ecommerce does exists, but not to the degree I was describing "full blown by fall 2003--in Europe"

7.
Disagree. I like dot info, but I believe .com will always be the "cross language barrier" extension.

izopod's response: I wasn't necessarily talking about tld endings. I was referring to domain names that have "cross over" appeal that use "well known terms" in them. www.Infotrack.com, www.track.info...etc. There are certain words that are common to all languages.

8.
Not Necessarily. As a matter of fact DVDs will gain greater ground in terms of storage. Also MP3 format will slowly be the most ubiquitous digital music format and will be integrated will all other electronic devices and music players that will be developed

izopod's response: Hollywood & the music industry are about to unleash a format that is not easily copied or downloaded. In fact this type of technology may spread to other products because of it's "life-span"---self destructs after so many uses.

9.
Will SEE? They do already and have been for a while... inter.net tele.com cyb.org to name the few.

izopod's response: Sorry NIC, these types of names are definitely not what I was refering to.

10.

I do however agree with you here.

izopod's resonse: noted.

 

[dtobias]

Originally posted by izopod
Don't be surprised if some company doesn't try to buy the naming rights to the new building being considered built in New York.

So we might be seeing the new Twin Towers, "Dot-Info Tower" and "Dot-Biz Tower"?

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by dtobias


So we might be seeing the new Twin Towers, "Dot-Info Tower" and "Dot-Biz Tower"?

No, if anything probably Dot US

Nice try tho!

izopod

 

[dtobias]

If it's a world trade center, shouldn't every floor be named after a different country code domain?

 

[DryHeat]

Originally posted by izopod
Here are my top 10 predictions for 2003.

1. Verisign will sell their "Network Solutions" part of their business to a new player on the block. Verisign will now get back to it's core business of Secure Site Services. This industry is going to be HUGE in the next few years.

izopod

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/news/4881896.htm

Battered by the dot-com downturn, VeriSign, the leading domain name registrar, today will announce it is reviving the Network Solutions brand name as part of its effort to rebuild and market its business of selling domain names, e-mail and Web site services.

Running the domain-name operations with more autonomy could make it easier to sell the unit eventually, although VeriSign said it has no intention of doing so.

Its not even a week into 2003.....Way to go izopod!!

 

[mole]

The dawn of a new era

 

[izopod]

Originally posted by DryHeat


Its not even a week into 2003.....Way to go izopod!!

Thanks DryHeat... 1 down 9 to go!!! (lol)


izopod

 

[Fearless]

Originally posted by izopod


Nope. I have a "crystal ball" in the back room I frequent often.:laugh:

izopod I'll trade you my lucky statue for that crystal ball.