oil peak its only a myth :)

[gemsergio]

I was convinced that oil peak was just around the corner but I really have to make up my mind on the subject.
Oil shale is the new way to go and the reserve in america are estimated in 2 trillion barels only in the united states (by the way its roughly 60% of the whole oil shale reserve in the world).
Basically oil shale its heavy oil that usually needs to be mined.
There are new technologies now that vaporize this heavy oil that permit to extract it as normal oil.
The implication its huge because of the cost of production.
It was conveninet to start extracting it at 40 usd a barrel immagine now.
We will see a dramatic acceleration on the matter and I strongly beleive that the oil peak is waaayyyy far.
By the way this is only my personal opinion a lot of ppl think to oil shale as a myth not because of the reserves but the problems to extract it from the ground and converting it.
Only new kind of extration technology will permit a new scenario in the oil industry, but I am 100% convinced we have already the technology it will take a few year 5 10 to get it out but it will come...till than the oil price will continue to increase sorry.

 

[whydna]

Well the cause of the oil peak is not that fact that there is no more oil - but the fact that it is no longer efficient and cheap enough to keep up with the way our society and economy is working (relies heavily on cheap oil).

 

[Chaiki]

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/The Breakfast Club.pdf

Page 25 of this says you're wrong.

 

[VioxxLawyers]

Yes oil peak is when oil production will start sliding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

For example, US oil peak was in 1971. Most of oil producing nations already had their peak.

"Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries"

No more major discovery in the last 30 years.

 

[whydna]

Oil shale is simply not efficient enough to produce cheap oil. It is a gimmick much like "hydrogen fuel cells" that was said to solve this oil problem.

 

[VioxxLawyers]

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/The Breakfast Club.pdf

Page 25 of this says you're wrong.

Nice pdf. Just finished to read it.

I also dont believe Canada and Venezuela claims that they hold oil reserves larger than Saudi Arabia.

We are really in deep s..t

 

[Chaiki]

Don't under-estimate world-wide demand. China only started using significant crude in 1994-1997.. this .pdf illustrates it nicely:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Harvard University.pdf

Its not that we're running out.. its just that it will cost much much more as demand soars.

$3.00 at the pump could be $10.00 as soon as this winter.

 

[Beachie]

Run for the hills! This is exactly why I drive a steam-powered car:

http://www.pukeariki.com/resources/awreidcar.jpg

 

[Duckinla]

Fortunately humans have about a 2 million year history of proven ability to adapt and evolve. And that was when we had small brains and fought with sticks. Now that we have these big heads with fully developed brains, just watch the crazy things we can do!

 

[insomnia]

The willingness for humans to accept and develop newer methods will grow as the price of oil grows. Therefore, such a problem will be solved by technological changes, ie. advancement in devices that consume oils, or advancements in fuel types themself. The solution lies in 90% economics, 10% science

 

[whydna]

^ The problem now is not our capability, but has now come down to limited natural resources. It is down to the basic, non-renewable resources that are limiting us. We have simply depleted our supply with no replacement.

Even in economics, we are limited by time, money, and resources.

 

[Beachie]

I suspect the oil companies are restricting the development of alternatives - buying out tech companies that look like they're heading the right direction. There's a lot of money at stake, so without wanting to sound like a conspiracy theorist, there's a lot that goes on behind the scenes..

Cynically, when the oil runs out I'll expect the next big 'breakthrough' in technology..

Electric cars are perfectly feasible, whilst not on the same par as petroleum, and we've got plenty of uranium to make electricity. When push comes to shove, even the idealist greenies have to pick up their kids from school..

 

[whydna]

Beachie, you are correct. However, we are not only fueling our cars. Our entire community relies on cheap oil. What will happen to transportation of products? Food? Clothing?

 

[Beachie]

Beachie, you are correct. However, we are not only fueling our cars. Our entire community relies on cheap oil. What will happen to transportation of products? Food? Clothing?

I don't think we're literally going to use up the entire planet's oil - we'll still need it for larger transport, but finding alternatives for the majority of standard vehicles will go a long way to ease the pressure.

As an aside, I've read about the "Hubbert Peak" before, and it was commented that the timeline keeps moving further and further out.

In Australia (and I'm sure elsewhere) a lot of our cars run on natural gas. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872966.html

 

[Duckinla]

I believe the cost of transportation and raw materials will increase significantly in the next few years. But there is an upside to this.

When it becomes very expensive to transport a piece of furniture from China to the U.S., the low labor costs will become less meaningful. This could help to return manufacturing to a more local level. Which would in turn reduce the demand for fuel.

 

[OgieOgalthorpe]

...and lead to an increase in prices paid by consumers for all goods/services (no just gasoline).

 

[whydna]

^Until it is no longer efficient (price wise) to import these products. What shall we do then?

 

[OgieOgalthorpe]

Pay higher prices either way.