Unless the registry owner has some serious long term plans I don't expect to see this TLD doing well at all and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose a lot of money right off the bat with registrations. I also cannot see how this can be profitable in the long run (heck, even the short run).
The only way I see this TLD making money for the registry is if the owner has some serious developmental plans on a huge scale - larger than anything we've ever seen - or they're some huge time HIV advocate who is trying to raise money and awareness for the disease (but then again, wouldn't a yearly donation as large as the fees to run your own registry have more of an effect)?
Or am I missing something?
edit:
I do see they'll offer .hiv domains to a charitable organization for free (but when you try to register it you get a 404) - what if domainer A wants (domain).hiv and a charitable organization also wants it - say it is something that would be considered a premium .hiv domain - like cure.hiv - who will get it?
I don't see a mention of price, too.
United domains is reporting about 3,200 pre-registrations.
http://www.uniteddomains.com/new-top-level-domain/hiv-domain-registration/
But - everyone is saying they're free - so is that to pre-register and you pay later?
Edit #2:
Reg fee is about $150 a year:
http://www.dothiv.org/dothiv/donation-allocation/