Return of the Dotcom Boom

[Ed30]

The heady days of 1999/2000 when everyone saw the Internet as the new Industrial Revolution seem now like a distant memory. Will they return? If so when and to what extent?

Please post your opinions.

 

[MBZ]

If I had those answers, I'd be poised to become a very rich man.

Whatever happens commercially, it will certainly be more realistic
than before. And probably better. The net will continue to expand,
half the world's population is probably under 20. You would think
that market's for communication and information, as well as
entertainment would be practically unlimited.

For pet food and groceries, no.

I look a the internet like early television. Initially a primitive
novelty for a few, that grew into a globlal necessity. It has taken
television fifty years to accomplish this however. Just look at
what has transpired in IT over the last decade. Then again, I'm
in the real estate and construction business, so what the hell
would I know?

 

[eddie1278]

mbz very good point about how long it took the tv to get big.

 

[mole]

Originally posted by Ed30
The heady days of 1999/2000 when everyone saw the Internet as the new Industrial Revolution seem now like a distant memory. Will they return? If so when and to what extent?

If you think about it for just a while, pets.com seems like a distant memory, the SuperBowl dotcom commercials seem like a distant memory. A short memory peppered with very long memories of real financial suffering for hundreds of thousand of people around the world. I doubt the craziness of the "Dotcom Boom" will ever return. The internet is rationalising fast. Less free things today. Less hype and hoopla - essentially, less money for nothing and the chicks are free.

What we do know for a fact and can all agree is that more and more people around the world are becoming highly dependent on the internet as a business tool.

IMO, the B2B sector will represent the biggest growth area in the coming years.

 

[Ed30]

MBZ's point about comparing the net too TV is correct, but I prefer to compare it with the pioneering days of the railroad- it boomed quickly then dissolved for about 10 years then took off quietly but quickly, way surpassing the mini high it started out on.
I believe we will see the boom again, but it will be sustained and quiet and much bigger than before - because the net will become such an intrinsic part of everyday life that people will just take it for granted - just like the airline or train industry today.
That's what makes this business so exciting and fun for me.

 

[TurNIC.com]

Thats better to see an opinion about transportation. That was a very good examples comparing railroads in the US with dotcom industry. Yes the railways dissolved but in the long-range freight transportation. What about in urban transportation. It is booming now! Every big metropolitan area in World are trying to invest in urban railways systems. ABB, Siemens, Cubic of US, they all very healthy. As said that I think the internet will consolidate more and turn its focus to b2b relations from selling pet food or toys online. Just like railroads turned from hefty freidht trains to urban railways systems

 

[Ed30]

I agree with you all about b2b as the most important factor, but as b2b communications and admin become more cost efficient so prices for things like, for example, toys, groceries, indeed anything bought and sold electronically will come down so that eventually offline stores won't be able to compete.

 

[MarkyMark]

even though that sector is going to grow too of course. The main growth will be (I think!) in real-time entertainment end end-customer shopping. There are no obstacles except user knowledge and security doubts. These obstacles will become smaller and smaller as our kids become spenders, and secure billing systems are developed (and trusted upon!). This will happen in the next 10 years.


(I think

)

 

[dkny]

i have the same thought as markymark, but my optimistic expectation that this will happen in 2-3 years.

 

[Togoodhlth]

ecommerce will continue to grow as a percentage of overall retail sales for years to come.
As was previously stated by MarkyMark in reference to the entertainment sector, people are becoming and will continue to become more comfortable purchasing online.
In terms of growth here are some fantastic stats:
It took 38 years before 50 Million people were listening to radio
14 years for tv
4 years for the Internet

The Intenet started off with a bang and is still growing fast however it will probably hit momentum and then level off a bit. My opinion is that it will be several years before then and then several years of "momentum". I could be wrong but that is very, very rare!

 

[dkny]

Because internet is the most expensive media of entertainment right now. you may not see it if you live in the U.S. where computer is considered cheap compared to living costs. But the people in the third world can't afford to buy a computer at $500. It is considered as a luxury item for them. Not that they don't want to use it or they're uneducated, but it's expensive.

2-3 years i mean in the U.S. 5-8 years in the third world where majority of world population live. The internet boom will come back for sure. The worldwide internet usage will be higher than U.S. users when the computer price is equal to or not much higher than the TV.

 

[Togoodhlth]

Quite honestly I don't feel that citizens of "third world countries" accessing the Internet will equate to a boom. As you stated it will be a "luxury" for them to own a computer and I would imagine their online purchases would be nominal at best.
You could be right regarding the timeline for the US vs. the rest of the world. I would agree we are several years further along with regard to the growth of the net.

coming soon.....www.BoardeR.com

 

[dkny]

80+% of world population are in the developing countries. When they start using Internet, it will be huge.

We're not talking about spending online, but the advertising business will come back; of course, in different forms; not stupid banner ads. It will be interactive, catchy, for example, visitors can smell perfume from smell device attached to the computer, etc.

 

[Ed30]

dkny is right. More surfers = more traffic = more money!

 

[Togoodhlth]

I hear what you're saying however we're talking about 3rd world countries. I don't even have a contingency plan for marketing to any segment of the population in any 3rd world country and can't see that being necessary in the next 20 years at the very least.
Remember these are people in some cases who don't have indoor plumbing, no phones etc. A HUGE percentage of these people are impovershed.
I think we should get them some food, water and shelter before we start considering how we are going to market to them.

 

[dkny]

Remember these are people in some cases who don't have indoor plumbing, no phones etc. A HUGE percentage of these people are impovershed.

not all of them.

Internet is not belong to the U.S. only. You will see the future when Chinese language web site outnumber English's one. It's not impossible.

 

[MBZ]

I heard recently that half of the world's population has never
made or received a phone call. I don't know how accurate this
claim is, but there is a long, long way to go nonetheless.

 

[dkny]

Originally posted by MBZ
I heard recently that half of the world's population has never
made or received a phone call. I don't know how accurate this
claim is, but there is a long, long way to go nonetheless.

well, it's no longer true. read this http://www.shirky.com/writings/half_the_world.html

 

[MBZ]

Thanks. Great link.