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The Watercooler
Should You Get any of the New gTLD's Domains?
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<blockquote data-quote="jmcc" data-source="post: 2238821" data-attributes="member: 80388"><p>It takes a few years for the value in a new TLD to stabilise or become apparent. Most of the coverage of a new TLD in the first year of operation is fanboi coverage about big sales. (This problem is worse in the new gTLDs because these are not natural sales but rather sales in a heavily rigged market.) However the domains that drop in the second year are rarely analysed and the reasons they drop moreso.</p><p></p><p>Some of the new gTLDs have got the civilian/business mix right and are beginning to show signs of life. Others have not and have gone for a discounting/freebie model that has locked them into a boom and bust cycle. They have to keep discounting or find other markets to maintain registration volume. That's a very dangerous position for any TLD.</p><p></p><p>As part of the work I do, I analyse web usage in TLDs. This is a bit more complex than the usual imprecise Alexa rankings or cargo-cult "parking levels" on some new gTLD sites. It involves checking the usage for every domain name in the TLD (or samples of hundreds of thousands of domains in larger TLDs). Some of the new gTLDs are bubble TLDs. Some are developing in the same way as early ccTLDs. Some are zombie TLDs. Some are firesale candiates.</p><p></p><p>If you are looking for a quick flip in the new gTLDs, you may already be too late. The game is rigged so that most of the high value domain names never went to general availability. Now you might get lucky and find a diamond in the rough, but the odds are against it. If you don't understand the dynamics of a new gTLD and its target market, then you will probably lose more money than you will make from speculating in that gTLD.</p><p></p><p>As for the people who claim that .COM is the gold standard of TLDs, there are some renewal patterns there that are quite disturbing. In the last ten years or so, the renewal rates for new one year registrations have fallen from approximately 70% ten years ago to around 56%. But blending these with the renewal rates for older registrations allows the registry to publish a higher blended renewal rate (approximately 72% or so). Discounting and couponing may be lowering renewal rates on new one year registrations. There are some hosters/registrars that seem to specialise in discounting and they have one year renewal rates below 30%. When these hosters drive trends in a TLD, that TLD has serious problems. Now numerically, they are good for the registry but in real terms, the end user sees a zombie zone of PPC landers, holding pages and abandoned websites with a single "hello world" post.</p><p></p><p>As with any new TLD market, there's money to be made but more people will lose money betting on the TLD being a success and that their two or three keyword domain will be valuable some day. It might be, but they have to have the money to pay the renewal fees until they can recover their costs. That could take ten years or more.</p><p></p><p>Regards...jmcc</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="jmcc, post: 2238821, member: 80388"] It takes a few years for the value in a new TLD to stabilise or become apparent. Most of the coverage of a new TLD in the first year of operation is fanboi coverage about big sales. (This problem is worse in the new gTLDs because these are not natural sales but rather sales in a heavily rigged market.) However the domains that drop in the second year are rarely analysed and the reasons they drop moreso. Some of the new gTLDs have got the civilian/business mix right and are beginning to show signs of life. Others have not and have gone for a discounting/freebie model that has locked them into a boom and bust cycle. They have to keep discounting or find other markets to maintain registration volume. That's a very dangerous position for any TLD. As part of the work I do, I analyse web usage in TLDs. This is a bit more complex than the usual imprecise Alexa rankings or cargo-cult "parking levels" on some new gTLD sites. It involves checking the usage for every domain name in the TLD (or samples of hundreds of thousands of domains in larger TLDs). Some of the new gTLDs are bubble TLDs. Some are developing in the same way as early ccTLDs. Some are zombie TLDs. Some are firesale candiates. If you are looking for a quick flip in the new gTLDs, you may already be too late. The game is rigged so that most of the high value domain names never went to general availability. Now you might get lucky and find a diamond in the rough, but the odds are against it. If you don't understand the dynamics of a new gTLD and its target market, then you will probably lose more money than you will make from speculating in that gTLD. As for the people who claim that .COM is the gold standard of TLDs, there are some renewal patterns there that are quite disturbing. In the last ten years or so, the renewal rates for new one year registrations have fallen from approximately 70% ten years ago to around 56%. But blending these with the renewal rates for older registrations allows the registry to publish a higher blended renewal rate (approximately 72% or so). Discounting and couponing may be lowering renewal rates on new one year registrations. There are some hosters/registrars that seem to specialise in discounting and they have one year renewal rates below 30%. When these hosters drive trends in a TLD, that TLD has serious problems. Now numerically, they are good for the registry but in real terms, the end user sees a zombie zone of PPC landers, holding pages and abandoned websites with a single "hello world" post. As with any new TLD market, there's money to be made but more people will lose money betting on the TLD being a success and that their two or three keyword domain will be valuable some day. It might be, but they have to have the money to pay the renewal fees until they can recover their costs. That could take ten years or more. Regards...jmcc [/QUOTE]
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