Originally posted by kidkool
yes this is what i've been saying all along. people think WLS will give ordinary people a chance to compete for the best names.
They have a better chance under the current system. When WLS arrives, big companies will buy up hundreds of thousands of them in the first 5 minutes. you will have about an hour to get a wls for the name you want, then the game will be over.
Under the current system at least you can use a drop service and get a dog in the fight. Under wls emailing the registrant will be your only hope of beating wls.
Verisign will be probably getting a whopping
$40 per WLS subscription, just as they now get $6 per domain registration.
Therefore, a company who wants to buy 10,000 WLS subscriptions will have to cough up
$400,000 per year. 100,000 subscriptions is $4,000,000 per year (assuming that such a buyer will be able to get the minimum price). I don't care who you are, in this industry $400,000 / year - $4,000,000 / year is an incredible amount of money.
Any company that buys in such large quantities will eventually run out of money, IMO. In today's depressed market, there is no way that a decent return on such a large investment can be made. Why no ROI? Because the best names will drop with even less frequency than they do now --- as you pointed out, if I can't get a name under the WLS, I will simply contact the owner via email, thus negating the WLS.
My prediction:
All of the best WLS subscriptions will be taken in the first day, like you said. However, most of them will become available again after the first year, when dumb companies realize they just burned through an amazing amount of cash with no ROI.
Bottom line (IMO):
The high cost of the WLS will eventually become a deterrant for the "big" companies.