The Dragon Roars

[Rubber Duck]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4522498.stm

China's Ministry of Commerce said that total foreign trade had risen by 23% this year, and was worth $1.2 trillion....

A new report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development claims that China has now overtaken the United States as the world's largest exporter of hi-tech goods like computers, mobile phones and digital cameras.....

The European Union is still China's main trading partner, trading goods and services worth $196.7bn so far in 2005.....

So much for the US as the World's only Superpower!!!

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[Sarcle]

The surplus has been criticised in the US, with claims that it is boosted by the artificially low exchange rate of China's currency, the yuan.

Yes, denial always seems best policy for the U$A agenda.

 

[QuantumBeam]

wha...............:-O

 

[Chaiki]

The Chinese were the first to invent gunpowder.. first to ride horses in battle, first to do alot of things and at several points throughout history, could have conquered the world. Ultimately they never did.

Nothing is going to be different in 2006, 2012, 2030 or ever. IMO, China is in alot of trouble once 51% of their people become literate and ask for the freedoms and democracy that their neighbor India enjoys. They have real fundamental internal problems than are being swept under the rug, and there is alot of unrest, corruption and discontent that is glossed over and spuin to look like it doesn't exist.

That cancer will ultimately cause great flux in the Country.

 

[Rubber Duck]

That's odd according to Gordon Brown our Chancellor of the exchequer 25% are fluent in English, almost as many as in Chinese by all accounts.

Actually much of China success has been built on the quality of its educational system. Whilst, I would not argue that they do not enjoy the freedoms we do in the west, it would seem to me that things have improved a great deal over the last 20years. The general standard of living is significantly higher than in India, and frankly democracy is not always the Panacea that it is made out to be. India is certainly not free of unrest, corruption or discontent. Yes, China is in need of reforms, but in my opinion it has made a lot more progress than the Former Soviet Union in many respects, even though on the surface at least that is now a democratic state.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[Chaiki]

You are seeing the white side of a white and black ball Dave. The Chinese government would love you to beleive that everything is going great in China, and in many respects it is. But this is a veneer.

 

[Rubber Duck]

I sorry but I rarely see things in terms of black and white.

China has huge problems, but frankly many of these problems predate the Communist Period. In the earlier days of communism many of these problems were greatly exaccerbated.

Todays PRC cannot really be called communist in any meaningful sense because it has made too many compromises with the basic ideology. We are also clear that it is not democratic. Having said that the UK has been playing the democracy game for centuries, but our system is far from perfect. Much of our system is still based on privilidge minority hanging onto the power of government.

In China, immediate change in an impoverished nation would simply have resulted in chaos. I have worked in Africa for long enough to know that progress is about more than high ideals. In the UK even the imperfect system that we have has been won on the back of the shedding of much blood.

I am not saying that China should not change, and indeed it must, but developing from a totalitarian system in a country that has no history of democracy, to a western style parliamentary system is not possible in a country, where so many start from a position of abject poverty.

That is not to say that progress must not be made or that the PRC should not be put under pressure to change. However, such progress that has been made should be respected, otherwise there will be little prospect that protests will be listened to.

A donkey is a stubborn animal and the carrot is just as important as the stick. That's I am afraid is not a Chinese proverb but relates to an English one.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[none]

Writing this from Narita on a 5 hour (ugh!) layover. The headline on the SCMP today was that China understated it's GDP by $300 BILLION.

Two things come to mind: they need new economists and accountants and secondly the economy is rockin'!

 

[Rubber Duck]

Writing this from Narita on a 5 hour (ugh!) layover. The headline on the SCMP today was that China understated it's GDP by $300 BILLION.

Two things come to mind: they need new economists and accountants and secondly the economy is rockin'!

Frankly, the problem is that things are developing at such a rate all figures are purely indicative. However, economic management is not such a problem as whatever the money supply labour cost are going to remain very low for the forseeable future, so the control of the money supply there is not that critical.

The 9% growth rate does not state the clear picture as when an economy catches up like many have done so before, the internal growth figures are supplemented by currency appreciation. China's real growth rate in dollar terms would be closer to 20% if the Yuan were allowed to appreciate. There is so much foriegn exchange going into China it must be getting hard to buy Yuan at all!

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[Anthony Ng]

They have real fundamental internal problems than are being swept under the rug, and there is alot of unrest, corruption and discontent that is glossed over and spuin to look like it doesn't exist.

That cancer will ultimately cause great flux in the Country.

Yes, China has its own problems, but the worse is now over, thanks to the more popular, able and open-minded leadership.

By the way, if you are not aware of it yet, China has actually taken the route of the SE Asian model of New Authoritarianism (re: Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong) that was once advocated before Tiananmen. The good thing is: 2 of those 4 Asian dragons have now implemented democracy, AND are relatively in much better shape (political and economic landscape) than India.

 

[Rubber Duck]

Yes, China has its own problems, but the worse is now over, thanks to the more popular, able and open-minded leadership.

By the way, if you are not aware of it yet, China has actually taken the route of the SE Asian model of New Authoritarianism (re: Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong) that was once advocated before Tiananmen. The good thing is: 2 of those 4 Asian dragons have now implemented democracy, AND are relatively in much better shape (political and economic landscape) than India.

Yes, I think that is a more balanced view.

Freedom and Democracy is a journey rather than a destination. I believe that China is travelling in the right direction and rather faster than many give it credit for. Much of the journalism in the west appears to be ignoring the progress and is using the improved openess to be very critical.

Strong but forward thinking leadership is required. Democracy in the short-term is unlikely to provide either, but could result in huge instability. I think the current leadership is actually doing a very good job, in a very difficult situation. As with all regimes there will a time for change, but severe political upheaval is the last thing anyone needs at the moment.

I also believe that Chinese government has wider support than is generally recognised. In the west, popular govenments are those that deliver on the economy. The current regime is doing that in spades, so the idea that it is highly unpopular, does not seem that credible to me.

Change is required, but it needs to be manageable and sustainable. Ideology, even benign western ideals, need to be implemented with pragmatism.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[spyder]

<<<<<<
China is in alot of trouble once 51% of their people become literate and ask for the freedoms and democracy that their neighbor India enjoys.
<<<<<<
Hmm! Yup! "India - the world's largest democracy".
However, I bet democracy is a moot point and an unfathomable concept if you're one of the hundreds of millions of Indians whose bed (and toilet!) for the night is a cow-dung infested street (.... or a village shack). Especially when you haven't eaten a hot meal for a week and haven't been able to wash for months!

And by the way .. from the CIA Factbook .... China'a literacy rate is:
Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 90.9%
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

 

[financialtraffic]

Why are you so concerned with the US anyway? Do you still believe that the US stands in between you and your IDN dreams?

Why waste time pumping up and dumbing down other countries in an attempt to prove your points and enrich yourself?

 

[katherine]

Call me biased if you want but I have some reservations with investing in a country with such an authoritarian regime in charge.
Just knowing they police and censor the Internet like hell. As a domainer I am even wary.

The countries Nameslave was pointing to (Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong) are much more relaxed to my knowledge. IMO China still has a long road ahead (unless we witness a violent and radical upheaval).
I also believe that government is danregous and unpredictable.
My view is that they would rather crash the Internet (if they could, at least at home) than tolerate political dissent online (or offline).

Obviously China has problems of its own that must be solved.
Back in the 1980s it was common to hear that Japan and Germany would become the next superpowers and that the US would be 'buried'. Well now we know...
I doubt China (or even India for that matter) will fare any better. At least not in the foreseable future.

It's also interesting to note that a huge chunk of the US debt is owned by China. In other words the US currency is already hostage to the Chinese government.
Actually the US is selling the rope by which they will be hung to the Chinese... I'm afraid one day the Dragon will wake up and roar... and many will get burnt.
That is not denial, the rise of China as a superpower is obviously bound to carry on for some time. But there is a limit to everything, even if it's the sky

My 2¢ as usual of course :-D

 

[Rubber Duck]

<<<<<<
China is in alot of trouble once 51% of their people become literate and ask for the freedoms and democracy that their neighbor India enjoys.
<<<<<<
Hmm! Yup! "India - the world's largest democracy".
However, I bet democracy is a moot point and an unfathomable concept if you're one of the hundreds of millions of Indians whose bed (and toilet!) for the night is a cow-dung infested street (.... or a village shack). Especially when you haven't eaten a hot meal for a week and haven't been able to wash for months!

And by the way .. from the CIA Factbook .... China'a literacy rate is:
Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 90.9%
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

Well it might be the first, but I sincerely hope you will make more contributions of this quality.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[Anthony Ng]

The countries Nameslave was pointing to (Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong) are much more relaxed to my knowledge. IMO China still has a long road ahead (unless we witness a violent and radical upheaval).

They ARE now but were NOT back then. Taiwan and South Korea are now truly democratic states (my definition being that opposition leaders who were once JAILED were elected presidents); but before that, their high hands were no less softer than the big brothers back in the USSR. My observation tells me that China today is way much more relaxed than say Taiwan and South Korea in the 1980's. The most important thing is: China is no longer a "totalitarian" state (make sure you don't mix the term up with dictatorship or communism).

 

[spyder]

<<<<
..... but I sincerely hope you will make more contributions of this quality.
<<<<
Hi Dave.
I could well be back as nothing much seems to be happening at the Domains for Sale threads!

 

[eq78]

AND HOW IS THIS DOMAIN NEWS what a fj

 

[Rubber Duck]

Writing this from Narita on a 5 hour (ugh!) layover. The headline on the SCMP today was that China understated it's GDP by $300 BILLION.

Two things come to mind: they need new economists and accountants and secondly the economy is rockin'!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4541220.stm


.....The minister's comments to reporters come as the government prepares to release revised growth figures for 2004 on Tuesday.

Quicker expansion made economic output nearly 17% larger than first predicted.

That extra growth would place China's economy as the world's fourth biggest, behind the US, Japan and Germany.....

......The OECD expects the Chinese economy to grow by 9.3% in 2005, rising to 9.4% next year and 9.5% in 2007.....

Actually, unless this revisiion takes into account underestimates in previous years also, China seems to be growing about 25% a year on a Price Parity Basis. Put on that a requirement for the value of the currency to grow at a similar rate and the size of the Economy in dollars could be approximately doubling every two to three years!

Well, it shouldn't take them long to Overhaul a moribund Germany!

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

Looking at their own Industrial Productions Statistics the following is very striking.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/monthlydata/t20051216_402296486.htm

Year on Year Growth in Percentage Terms:

Iron Ore Production 34.3
Soft Drinks 37.6
Machine-made Paper 32.8
Aluminous Production 28.5
Smelt Equipment 45.1
Large and Medium Tractors 78.1
Motor Vehicles 21.6
Civil Steel Boats and ships 90.8
Power Generating Equipment 43.8
Mobile Communication Equipment 115.5
Micro-Computers 69.9
Semiconductor Integrated Circuit 42.5


Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

Further updates on developments and indications that the Yuan is going to be revalued faster than previously expected. This signals that China will soon be challenging Japan and the US for economic position:

http://today.reuters.com/business/n...BusinessNews&storyID=nPEK331121&imageid=&cap=
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4541220.stm
http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-12-20-voa11.cfm

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[Rubber Duck]

Why are you so concerned with the US anyway? Do you still believe that the US stands in between you and your IDN dreams?

Why waste time pumping up and dumbing down other countries in an attempt to prove your points and enrich yourself?

The US has biggest but probably one of the most inefficient economies in the World. You only need to look the International Oil consumption figures to reach this conclusion. The problem is that whole economy is structured around cheap energy, which frankly no longer exists and will never come back in the way that it was available in the previous decade.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_oil_con_tho_bar_dai&int=-1

The idea that offshoring manufacturing elsewhere is going to exaccerbate the greenhouse effect is frankly ludicrous. But America is going to have to change, not only can it not afford to sustain this level of consumption, but it going to be increasingly difficult to find the Oil at all. Arguments about the revaluation of the Yuan, also impact on this. If China's currency doubles in value even at the current level of economic activity, oil is going to be twice as affordable there as before, which will push the word price even higher. Half the vehicles on US roads need to be scrapped and replaced with better designed substitutes from Asia. This is not political rhetoric, it is economic reality!

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon