<--- The Next Wave --->

[OnSpec]

First. Grab a coffee and pull up a chaises lounge. I gotta real important question. A couple actually. And its real important that you lissin' up.

Ok, we've experienced the early adopters, those who got into the domain game early, regged some great .coms and went on to sell them for millions. (Smart asses)

At some belated point, the penny dropped. The light went on and I jumped into the .com rush :cry: . I went dizzy registering as many domains as my credit card would allow. (Even though I had NO idea what the hell I was doing. But I was bound and bent that I was gonna get me a "dictionary" .com come hell or high water. And I finally did. My first dictionary domain was gridlines.com. Absolutely brilliant. I Still have no idea what I was going to do with it, but I had one. NSI had my $70 (closer to $100CDN.) and I had a "winner" that was sure to sell at some ridiculous multiple of a profit.

I had it until it expired 2 years later.

And don't even speak to me about .WS. Recalling that friggin' fiasco makes me want to puke into the t-shirt I got from them. Still have it actually. Don't know why I kept it. I guess it's because the picture of the guy with a bag over his head reminds me of how I acted.

Then came the .com bust. Oh sure I sold a few domains, making just enough to keep up with the payments and to keep my "significant other" at bay. "Hey, honey I sold another one!".

I tried sell at SolutionHome. I tried to sell at GreatDomains. I tried AfterNic. Unfortunately, I just didn't have the horses.

As time rolled on, I totally missed the traffic angle, didn't know enough about type-ins to make any impact. But I had learned a bit and was wiser, if not a little lighter in the wallet, and vowed to soldier on. Just wait till the next landrush. I'll be ready.

Then it came. .US was going to be my great redeemer. Again I jumped in, hoping to snag, (ie. win the lottery), a few good ones that would salvage my wounded ego. Two years ago in April the lottery in .US began. On the first day of release I was like a kid at Christmas, tearing open my email from the various registrars, telling me the domains I had won. For the most part I don't think I did too bad. I got several one-word, tier one domains that still might have some decent value.

So, here I am, contemplating what all of this means. I've learned an awful lot. Still tons more to go. I've made some great new Domainer cyber friends and I still have a passion for the game.

My question to you is this. Where does it go from here?

What do you see as the emerging trends? Do you still have the same passion for the game?

Where are the new opportunities? and perhaps more importantly (especially from my significant other's perspective), how will we be able to monetize this game we Domainers play?

OK. Start typing.

 

[parabola]

Thanks for the retro-spec, OnSpec. Great perspective for those of us on the front end of this process.

Now, on to what's next from those more grizzled in this hot domain game.

 

[cyphix]

My question to you is this. Where does it go from here?

Unless you get lucky & pick up some gems for cheap & are able to sell them for a quick & healthy profit, then unless your loaded with money, theres really no where else to go from here until WLS comes along my friend.

 

[OnSpec]

Unless you get lucky & pick up some gems for cheap & are able to sell them for a quick & healthy profit, then unless your loaded with money, theres really no where else to go from here until WLS comes along my friend.

What about the old adage that "The harder you work, the luckier you are"?

And is WLS the next landrush?

 

[cyphix]

Doesn't matter how much work you put in now, unless you got a boat full of $$$ you get nothing.

All you have to do now is check out the PD list & find the good names.... no use going over the RGP or on hold lists, too much work which yields measly results.

 

[bidawinner]

I learned a few years ago that I wasnt going to just let my names sit idle. they had to earn their keep.

I'm always putting websites up , I'm at a point now where I know how to make at least a few bucks with each one so at bare mininum a name will pay for it self and others provide thosands ..


Of course everyname isnt working .. I am finding that the ones I really think are winners are the ones I am investing a little sweat equity in..

If I dont think a name is worth putting any effort into ..then chances are no one else "in the know" will think so either.

Always exceptions to every rule .. but generally the name either already gets traffic (either true -type ins or SE) and so that name has inherent value and you can always sell those names.. or they have no traffic and then they become speculations..... we have a ton of speculators at DNF.

Nothing wrong with that --I have a lot of names I am speculating on ..but I also have names that pull in daily revenues

So Onspec to answer your question "where does it go from here" ..

It's going to go in the direction you take it..

 

[izopod]

The next wave....

Before you can look to the future you have to look at where you are standing. My feeling is that there will always be a use for domain names, or more importantly IP addresses. Just like phone numbers they direct us to a location of our choosing, and do it pretty damn well. We may add voice capabilities to access sites, but you'll still need the IP addresses. So in my opinion domain names are here to stay.

So you are probably wondering what will happen next, eh?? What is the next wave.....

That my friends is the million dollar question. The truth is know one really knows for sure. BUT, there are two companies that you can look to for potential clues.... One is Microsoft. They are desparately working on search, and have been for some time (i.e longhorn) 90% of the world's market is something to take note of. The other is Intel. They are the "microsoft" of computer chips. Right now they are enabling every known device with WI-FI chips so they can talk to each other (utility).

Search and Utility. That is the next wave (in my opinion). Now the question is how will your domain name porfolio fit in the the "Search" and "Utility" models of business in the future?

I will leave it right there, I have the answer, but would like to invite other opinions before I do so.


btw... I bought a very nice .ws name today (cancun.ws)

 

[izopod]

One other thing...not totally unrelated to this topic, but domain names that are popular are so because of the amount of exposure they get (i.e .com/.org) .... not the the amount registration #'s everyone thinks is a key indicator.

The other thing to think about is children that are about 5 to 6 years old right now, do not know what a .com only world is like (pre-2000). They will grow up with .biz/.info/.us/.eu, etc. Keen marketers should pick up on this and more than likely will start using domain names other than .com to attract their attention.

So step back and think about that. Realize we only think of .com because that is all we've ever known. The 5/6 year old group ....that's a totally different story.

The key is to have patience (as will all "new" markets) The names you have today will not sound funny to them, or unprofessional.

 

[Steen]

Doesn't matter how much work you put in now, unless you got a boat full of $$$ you get nothing.

I think that is very untrue.
Your knowlege and hard work is what makes you.

Not luck or wallet.
Who said dropping domains is the only part to domains?

 

[izopod]

The next wave....

Search and Utility. That is the next wave (in my opinion). Now the question is how will your domain name porfolio fit in the the "Search" and "Utility" models of business in the future?

Someone asked me politely to fork over the answer, so I will oblige. My response will only give you an overview "picture" of the two forces that will drive the internet and more importantly your domain porfolio.

Search

The way we will "search" for items on the internet will dramatically change in the next 5 to 10 years. It has to. We are living in the stone ages. What Microsoft plans to do is incorporate "Search Features" on every application they make. This will force pure "Search Engine" companies to compete. They in turn will create dynamic "applications" (not just toolbars) to keep up. I could see Google creating "Spreadsheets", etc. Remember.... We actually use the internet more for business than pleasure. Microsoft knows this, and their actions will have an impact, and before long what was seen as normal, going to a "pure search engine" site, to look something up willl be seen as "slow", "dumb" and "archaic".

What does this all have to do with domain names? My guess is that the Search process will become more refined then it is. Do I really need 5,820,0000 sites sent to me after I enter, "Domain Names" in Google. What will happen is that your computer will track your tastes, search history, etc. In a sense, it will filter out the stuff, "it knows" you probably won't want to see. This means it will also track sites you've been to in the past. TYPE-IN Domains will obviously benefit from such a feature. Notwithstanding, it more than likely will send you similiar sounding sites with your search. This might be a boon to those inviduals with non-com names, but with a high OVT word/words in them.

Again, search is going to be tailored, which means it's definitely going to track you. If it's tracking you, it's tracking other people. I'd say if you don't have your names in the SE's now, I would get them in their soon. More than likely Microsoft, et al are tracking sites right now to see which ones are relevant to be able to get a pilot application out there. "Idle" domain names will do no one any good in the future. Domain buyers will want to "jump" in and drive off. If domain "x" doesn't have a very good "Personal SE history", they will probably turn to domains that do. This will also force domain owners to ensure their sites are relevant, as you will want repeat visitors to boost your ranking with each visitors own "search engine".

UTILITY

Applications talking with each other. I should be able to turn my TV on from here by typing in a few key strokes. Or from my cell phone phone.

I'll make utility short. You want short, concise domain names. URLs are going to appear on many devices, and screen technology isn't so great. Therefore, stay away from "mniiiw.com" type names.... Also you'll definitely want names that "sound good" and cannot be mistaken for any other word... Example: You say: Bear dot com... (iratating computer generated voice from your cell phone responds). If you meant "B" "E" "A" "R" dot com press 1, if you mean "B""A""R""E" dot com press two. (you get the idea)

Well, this is my "crystal ball" to you. I'm not sure if all this will encompass the "next wave" but I think I'm pretty damn close.

 

[OnSpec]

btw... I bought a very nice .ws name today (cancun.ws)

Don't remind me. (But good luck with it either to develop or sell)

 

[OnSpec]

Thanks for your insights Izo.

I might also add that there is a strong movement afoot among the search engines/directories to more and more "localize" searches. So it will be common for searches to gravitate to "nightclubs in Miami" as opposed to just "Florida nightclubs". Already, ppc's are restricting the delivery of pop-up and other ads if the system shows that you are not in the target geographical area.

What that means to domainers is that keywords "nightclubs-in-Miami" take on a whole new value.

As far as your Utility observations go, I think that the jury is still out. You may be on the right track, but I would love to see the input of others on this point.

Keep rockin'

 

[cyberserf]

I think the next wave will be refined search engines with vocal search and voice activated browsing. I believe it will be here soon and help not only multitaskers out but also those that are disabled and are not able to peck at the keyboard like we do.

 

[mole]

"Because information is exploding, (the Internet) is going to become increasingly difficult to use if we don't get it right," said Liesl Capper, chief executive of Australian search startup Mooter.

http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,62827,00.html

I agree the organizing of information on the web for accuracy and predictiveness will be a key development in the coming years. And domains can play a major role in this intelligent web classification. Prior to the release of new namespace like .INFO and .BIZ, web developers had to cram everything into one good domain name, resulting in a very cluttered and congested site, even with the best navigation. If I were to say anymore, I would have to shoot you

http://www.implicitquery.com

 

[mole]

I think the next wave will be refined search engines with vocal search and voice activated browsing.

Agreed, nothing like some voice help. You can start by adding some professional sparkle to the sound of your domain name. Helps people to remember that domain name.

http://www.voiceonsite.com

 

[Domagon]

If one wants to see the future of TLDs, one should consider North American Toll-Free prefixes...

800 prefix, even after 30 years, is still the most sought by business and most widely recognized by consumers, even though 888, 877, 866, and 855 (pending) all perform the same function.

Search engines are great and all, but branding matters - if anything, branding matters more than ever as the amount of data indexed by search engines increases diluting search results...

For example, the #1 result for say "computer" today on Google.com is shown to most all Google.com users - in the future, with localization/personalzation, the #1 result one person sees for "computer" will likely be very different than what another sees.

Right now many businesses rely on people searching on their company name, product, etc...that won't work too well in a world in which often no two people will get the exact same search results.

And then of course, sponsored listings are becoming increasingly expensive further encouraging businesses to find and use other methods.

Then is the matter of basic promotion...vanity domains are ideal for this; helps people know how to return again.

While some suggest the TLD part could be dramatically changed or even dropped, etc it's not going to happen as long as email and other applications exist - so much of the internet is reliant on domain names in one way or another.

Years have pasted and yet most people still don't know about .biz, .info, etc...heck, I find that many people are surprised to hear there's actually a .US extension (many think .COM is the U.S.)...and then there are many people who think everything ends in .COM (many the same folks who think everything, including email addresses, begin with www. - I see this a lot in email list signups).

In short, .COM domains are going to remain important for the foreseeable future. Things often don't change as fast as people think, especially once inertia has set in.

Not sure about the next wave...difficult to reinvent the wheel...as in the physical world, it's all about location, location, location...domain names are akin to locations in cyberspace...I don't see anything out there on the horizon that comes close to duplicating that function.

Ron

 

[options]

The best of:

"I'm always putting websites up , I'm at a point now where I know how to make at least a few bucks with each one so at bare mininum a name will pay for it self and others provide thousands .."
Bidawinner

"Your knowlege and hard work is what makes you."
Steen

"The key is to have patience."
Izopod

And the winner is:
"The harder you work, the luckier you are".
Yourself

I would only add the old "no pain, no gain" rule like:
Invest.
But, never invest more than you can painlessly lose.

 

[OnSpec]

Some excellent commentary so far. The voice information that Mole shared the links to seems that it will have a huge impact in opening doors for more users.

As far as the statement - "location, location, location", I would modify that to information, information, information. The online world is dynamically different to the offline world.

Please keep the comments coming. There are a lot of other Hitters out there that I'm sure many here would like to hear from.

 

[lawpsych]

What an absolutely fascinating discussion! I could have outlined the problems I'v experienced precisely the way that OnSpec did.

I've noticed two "trends" that are grabbing my attention (and a lot of my spare time, as I'm working hard to set up my next big website). The first involves the use of Voice-Activated interaction between site users and the web sites themselves. I'm playing around with Microsoft Agent characters that respond to voice commands and getting them to "sing," as well as talk. I just might try my hand at some serious programming, too, which I haven't done in ANY computer language whatsoever in over a decade. As a self-taught geek-in-training, at least I get to play with the characters and languages that I like and can try to understand and I'm not stuck into little boxes about how things "should" work or look, etc.

The second trend is one that definitely suggests that Search engines and major search products are going to begin to change VERY rapidly and will be driven by the creative minds and hard working characters who are lucky enough to be in on the second-level "ground floor." I've been looking at the possibility of making a radical career shift into this area, while still using the people skills, research training, and basic scientific knowledge that are the hallmarks of my training as a psychologist.

Somehow, there needs to be a way of turning the Internet into more of a high-touch (as well as high-tech) endeavor. Otherwise, basic people needs will be left wanting and therein lies a whole host of new ideas.

I don't feel at liberty to say a WHOLE lot more just yet, but if I jump on this next rocket ship, I'll let you guys know very soon.

Sheila

 

[izopod]

One other thing I would like to say is that we shouldn't just focus on "Domain Names" when discussing the next "wave". Although we think we have some pretty good names, for the most part "domain buying/selling" is no "get rich quick" type venture. I think we can all atest to that. I don't see this changing in this future, especially with more domains on the way. The only way for you to realize a substantial profit on your domains (statistically speaking) is to create a network of sites, build a brand, generate traffic, then buy more names, build them up, Repeat.

One last thing, for all practical purposes this IS year 1994 all over again except we now have the technology to go further then before. I didn't realize that until this morning when I tuned into C-Span. The Commonwealth Club had arranged for a open discussion session with Jerry Yang and Terry Semel from Yahoo. They were discussing some of the same topics (market share, new services) that Jeff Bezos was discussing some nine years earlier on C-Span when I turned on the TV one morning to listen to him talk about an "online bookstore" called Amazon.com. BTW I remember thinking, why in the world would I want to buy a book off the internet. I love go to bookstores. Well, Amazon morphed into other things, and bookstores are still here. Interesting thing, I do actually prefer to buy certain books off of Amazon: Technical books, Reference stuff, etc. Books, I already know what they are going to be about, AND therefore wouldn't need to read the preface, or table of contents.


Anyways, my point is I realized this morning that everything seems so eerily similiar to the year 1994. The internet was new, there were no domainant players, everyone was wondering where the internet was going to take us. There was a great deal of uncertainy about it's future. Then along came some smart young people who "showed" us where we were going to go. The same thing will happen in the next few years. My feeling is that I "know" what will work this time: A useful application/site that will actually be useful to people, and not just a novelty. Oh, and the business plan thingy....

Ingenious applications are the key to making money in the future, not Domain Names (unless you build a network of sites: see above)

Suggested applications: An application that makes home networking idiot proof so that even grandma can hook up her system with the push of a button. Tracking applications. Remember when labels on foods didn't really have anything on them other than advertising. Now we know exactly how many calories etc are in the foods we eat. At first, I though "who cares". Now that I am older. It really matters (guess who is turning 50 this year...no, not me but a few more million boomers out there who want to watch their waistline). I wouldn't necessarily just go with "applications". What about businesses...Starbucks was born because of the technology boom. What other businesses in the "next wave" will become popular, for what reasons?

izopodian philsophy: If you are told to try and think "outside the box". Make sure you get out of the office to do it.