I'm sure you will receive better and more comprehensive answers, but as I understand it, the orange figures are estimates of how much you will get based on actual clicks, but then the provider makes adjustments somehow related to how potentially valuable the click really was.
For poor quality traffic such as traffic from certain countries, this can often be downgraded quite a lot. A portfolio with a higher proportion of very low quality traffic will probably experience quite large reductions in the amounts shown when they are "reconciled".
I had two domains that earnt something like $50 each whereas normally they would earn very little. I think both of these domains had their income for the day reduced substantially when the figures were reconciled, and to be honest, I can't really complain too much about that.
I hope this helps a bit.