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My expectations for new gTLDs are not high. I too am cautious as to the success.As for the new gTLDs, I think your expectations are too high. I predict that the vast majority will fail or achieve maverick status at best. Okay, I could see some niche TLDs doing fine like .cat today, but on a very limited scale. It is the shaky TLDs of today that stand to lose the most.
However, we are getting ready to enter into an age of the internet where the brand is the extension and the extension is the brand.
Once the trust factor is present for using .brand, all other extensions, typos, squatting will be totally useless.
Imagine someone like Coca-Cola getting the extension .coke. The brand is the extension. The extension is the brand. The extension is closed and tightly controlled by coke. It would be the most successful and best $180K advertising campaign ever launched and spent by coke in their entire history.
Instant brandability for:
new.coke
cherry.coke
vanilla.coke
diet.coke
Also, imagine being an employee of coke and having the email:
email.coke/YourName
Also, country or language specific:
Columbia.coke
In time, a domain like this could easily become the defacto extension as a platform used to launch new products or contests. In short time, people would learn to use new.coke instead of coke.com/newproducts/diet.
With this usage and branding, all other domain names and extensions used by coke would fall out of favor. This is very doable. The cost to do this whole package of marketing and branding is minimal compared to the cost of getting defensive regs. Domainers with typo or TM names would see their traffic dwindle to the point of zero.
Again, my expectations are not that high because I have not read, in detail, someones marketing and promotion plans.
If I am not mistaken, there were 13 applicants on file for .music (dot music). When awarded, if ICANN does not give proper consideration to which applicant has the best plan for usage (irregardless of extension) then the extension may not do very good.
Some are not likely to succeed as the demand is not there.
Some, like .eco and .green, tend to overlap in theme and essence.
Others like .nyc, .berlin, .london and numerous other domains appear to be a done deal. Again, there are multiple applicants on some of these.
I like the concept and theory behind many of these endeavors. That should not be taken as an investment strategy as, presently, I have no investment plans for these.
I do want this to succeed from the point of,
Why not? Why not take the same old internet and give it a face lift and bring it into the 21st century.
From someone who has spent the greater part of his life in advertising, marketing, research, science, and medicine any advances are welcomed.