I doubt anybody would contradict me if I said that .in is still a speculative venture.
And you think some of the domains we see registered in .com are not? Why then do 50k of them drop EVERY SINGLE DAY?
my outlook is a 12 to 20 year turn window
Any domain that you can't make a profit on today isn't worth holding long term, specially since you don't know how the landscape will change in 20 years.
I'd be interested in strategizing (getting others' thoughts) about India domaining opportunities that would work in the shorter term, say 12-48 months.
Pretty much the same as in .com, buy high value domains at reseller prices and build a business on them, not just websites or sell to someone who wants to.
With respect to the long term, I do not believe the common sentiment I see on forums that India's market will slowly build and realize the awesomeness of .in. The Indian market will change, but it will not be gradual. It will be sudden and disruptive. With hopes that the phase change is positive, the question is when, then whether .in will be along for the ride.
I think it has already happened and .in is definitely along for the ride. 2 in every 5 new startups based in India use .in - see the developed .in thread at NP. Or any of the 'startup' tracking sites in India, will be pretty apparent pretty fast. A lot of US based startups are also using .in and garnering huge amounts of investment - see outside.in or exclusively.in as case studies.
To answer Adam's original post, there currently is no resale market for .in
Au contraire, there is a huge market, just not too developed at the reseller level. The annual advertising market in India is $5 Billion. Out of which approximately 50% is in the organised sector. Internet currently accounts for less than 3% of the organised sector, but with the explosion of internet users here this is bound to grow, just like it has elsewhere in the world.
The medium-to-large size businesses in India feel entitled to any .in domain they want for nothing (reg fee).
SMEs are mostly the guilty party here, not large companies - most of those just buy the domain they want for 1-5k and that's that, only goes further if the owner doesn't sell.
INDRP is there ready to hand even the most generic domain to any such Indian business that asks. INDRP reform will probably only happen when multiple reasonable size businesses start vying for the same domains.
INDRP is a process and subject to pretty much the same idiosyncrasies as UDRP. A lot more generics get handed over by WIPO that ever have been in most ccTLDs. Probably because a generic .com is worth a lot more. And this is open to judicial overview as well, don't like the INDRP decision.. go to court.
Someone should look into it, but my guess is that the number of sales on namebio for .in is probably about the same as the number of INDRP cases.
Around 250 cases in the last 6 years, out of 1.5 million domains registered, with most of them being pretty blatant tm issues. At the very beginning INDRP was abused to a certain extent by people right at top of the Indian domain food chain, but hardly at all now. Over 2k reported sales, am sure there are at least 3x not reported, I've heard of at least 3 five figure sales, from a dependable source, that haven't been reported anywhere, am sure there are a lot more.
It's an environment adverse not only to legitimate domain investors, but also to new, small businesses wishing to be build an identity with .in.
Registry is pretty clear on domain resale, it's not allowed, but afaik there is no issue with building out a website on .in and therein lies the opportunity.
If you track registrations you'll find huge tracts of registrations - 3-4k domains at a time mostly by US / Europe based companies in the last 6 months or so. The smart money is already investing in .in, are you?