laying low is probably the best strategy..because in most cases, once a currency starts moving in a direction in a significant manner it will continue to do so for a while until there is a big reversal, and by for a while I mean years, and since there is no reversal in sight...
Spectacular Alan Greenspan interview on
60 Minutes the other night. Not painting a rosy picture.
Then listened to an interview with a real estate broker who has been doing business in Miami for 37 years. So he knows this market and the trends. Interesting and incredible. Mind you, I am recanting some of the story so this is not meant to mean doom and gloom.
He lives on Key Biscayne Island. Sells real estate in and around the Miami area. Anything on Key Biscayne was an easy $1.5-$2 mil just as a starting point. Now 17 homes for sale on his street. No buyers, none showing. Some have even dropped to $750K to $1.25 mil. Buyers in over their heads can not hang on too long. And most certainly will not be able to ride this out.
Driving in downtown Miami on the beach front, he counted 75 high rise cranes and high rise buildings going up. There is currently a flood of available office space, living space, condos, and penthouses on the market. Prices have been dropped to pre-2000 levels to try to move some of this property.
But his greatest concern was this. It used to be no sooner had a building got to the finishing point that the crane was going up somewhere else. He has not seen that recently. What he is seeing is cranes that are idle and construction projects that are idle.
Banks can take some hits with foreclosures and loan defaults. But as he put it, banks can only take so many contractors and developers walking away from a $450 million note. He suspects there are three such defaults already. Any one single bank absorbing such a hit would spell disaster in many instances. Several institutions experiencing the same would have a huge impact. Naturally all of this is public record and real estate brokers know where to look.
He sees no turnaround anytime soon. He believes that even if the housing market would turn around by the end of the year, although it won't, that it would take perhaps 6 years to rebuild consumer confidence and bring housing prices back to what they were selling for today.
Keep in mind, we are talking about just one hot market in the country.
Oddly enough, I read this same scenario on another site a couple of weeks ago.