For Sale Are you for or Against WLS

[hiOsilver]

Originally posted by mole
Hello Snapnames,

Re : Please forward to the people who can make a difference

One member of a domain community suggested that it might be a good thing to introduce a validification code system for the WLS system to prevent the big players from monopolising the system with a 100,000 system queries per sec. This could crash the system when WLS goes live. I think it’s a excellent idea to dispell why people fear the WLS will result in massive hoarding by the so-called big players.

The small player community appreciates attempts by Snapnames to make the WLS a fair and transparent system to all and not one ruled by, and favored for, the big-time players with insider connections to registrars.

Yours Sincerely,

mole

Mole,

Thanks. Good work. Currently, you can buy up to 100 Snapbacks at a time on the Snapname site. I would like to see them limit it to 10 WLS subscriptions at a time using a validation code. Perhaps BD will hire a bunch of temps to do their WLS reservations on launch, but if they are limited to 10 at a time, they will need to hire a lot of people and machines to reserve a ton. 1 at a time might be too tedious, but I would even accept that.

If this were implemented as a part of WLS, would any of you change your minds about WLS?

 

[mole]

GL

 

[JMJ]

Where is the risk? They buy a load of WLS and place them on the good domains, if they don't drop they switch them to another name. It would seem an exchange would benefit BD, Ult, etc. even more.

 

[hiOsilver]

The point is that with limited exchanges, one has to be careful about the names you pursue, or you will just waste your WLS funds. This applies to everyone, even the big players who have big money. Anyone who puts money down on names that are years from expiration will likely just be throwing their money away. How much would you pay for a WLS on sex.com, even if it is 5 years from expiration? I would pay $0, because you will have to pay for 4 more years, and it is probable that the name will be renewed before it gets down to 1 year from expiration.

 

[JMJ]

$40 limited exchange snaps get bought all day long. Oh and BTW sex.com has a snap on it. It also has a $25,001 bid on Namewinner

 

[hiOsilver]

Originally posted by JoltHost
$40 limited exchange snaps get bought all day long. Oh and BTW sex.com has a snap on it. It also has a $25,001 bid on Namewinner

Yes, but there are still tens of thousands of good names that are not yet snapped. And, the fact that I would not waste my money on a Snap for sex.com does not mean that I doubt for a microsecond that someone will buy it. Some people might even just like the feeling that they have a miniscule chance at picking up the ultimate domain name. Why do you think that so many lottery tix are sold every day? The lottery sells dreams. :-D

 

[GeorgeKGeorgeK is verified member.]

Only a $25,001 bid on NW for sex.com? Let me log in and change that.

 

[hiOsilver]

Originally posted by GeorgeK
Only a $25,001 bid on NW for sex.com? Let me log in and change that.

George,

Everyone is waiting to bid at the last minute. :cheeky:

 

[JMJ]

My point is that someone is willing to pay atleast $40 a year for one domain. And I have seen hundreds of others just like this case and I'm sure there are thousands. Now make that price $25-$26 a year which is what the cost will be within a very short time of this being introduced due to pricing wars and bulk purchase discounts. Then you have a deadlocked system on alot of names.

 

[hiOsilver]

Originally posted by JoltHost
My point is that someone is willing to pay atleast $40 a year for one domain. And I have seen hundreds of others just like this case and I'm sure there are thousands. Now make that price $25-$26 a year which is what the cost will be within a very short time of this being introduced due to pricing wars and bulk purchase discounts. Then you have a deadlocked system on alot of names.

Well, going back to your example of Sex.com.

What do you think the probability is that it will drop in 5 years? My estimate is 1 chance in 10 billion. So, if Sex.com is worth $50 million, then the expected value if you own and keep the WLS for 5 years =
$50,000,000 times 1/10,000,000,000 = $0.005

So, anyone who is going to commit to spending 5 x $25 = $125 for this bet with an expected value of 1/2 cent is a fool. There are plenty of fools out there. Even if you say that the probability is 1 chance in 5 million, the expected value is only $10.

Even after WLS is implemented, there will be thousands of names expiring every day. Most names will not be worth a WLS. The more valuable a name the more likely that there will be a WLS on it. It is difficult to pick up great one word domains now, and it will be difficult with WLS.

You will have a better chance of getting a name that now goes for $1000 at Pool or Namewinner, except that you will be paying $25 (or somewhat more, as I hope that some profit is built in for the registrars) for that chance. Many names of that value will have no WLS in the first month after implementation. The closer they get to expiration, the greater the likelihood that someone will pay for the WLS. Few names will be worth paying for a WLS for multiple years (I doubt that I will waste my time or money on any). Most names will not be worth paying for a WLS until they are at most 6 months from exp. How many Snaps are purchased for names more than 6 months from expiration? Relatively few.

Snaps had a good enough % probability of winning 6 months ago that they were a good model of what WLS will be like. Yes, there were other capture options. But, unless you had the resources of BD or Ult, you were not very likely to beat a Snap. So, big players like BD and Ult did buy a lot of Snaps. But, they did not buy them on every domain. And, rest assured, BD and Ult pay a discounted price for their Snaps.

 

[JMJ]

Out of 79 domains ran 44 have snaps now. All of these would be top considered top drops so you don't think if they are willing to shell out the bucks on these now if the cost of acquisition is reduced the other 35 domains won't be taken?

love.com
tags.com
rent.com
voip.com
providers.com
galaxy.com
insurance.com
news.com
lotto.com
health.com
tools.com
accessories.com
hotel.com
sale.com
music.com
charge.com
informationen.com
gifts.com
asian.com
internet.com
fantasy.com
resume.com
management.com
case.com
services.com
cheap.com
service.com
atlanta.com
travel.com
real.com
estate.com
casino.com
games.com
car.com
cars.com
auto.com
autos.com
sex.com
parts.com
search.com
email.com
phentermine.com
hosting.com
business.com

 

[hiOsilver]

Most of the names you have listed you will NEVER get a chance at no matter what system is in place. Who is going to let names like:

love.com, hotel.com, insurance.com, lotto.com, health.com drop?

The answer is: no one. So, if people want to buy snaps or WLS on those names, it is totally 100% irrelevant. If you want one of those names, contact the owner and offer them 6 or 7 figures. They will never drop. It is true that NSI will make money off of WLS on these names. Why shouldn't they collect money from people too stupid to recognize that they are making bets with much worse odds than Powerball?

 

[JMJ]

Same thing with ordinary english words 33 out of 83

the.com
very.com
form.com
it.com
think.com
that.com
low.com
turn.com
with.com
as.com
before.com
move.com
at.com
one.com
too.com
have.com
this.com
tell.com
does.com
or.com
set.com
by.com
play.com
small.com
we.com
end.com
can.com
put.com
hand.com
when.com
how.com
said.com
each.com

 

[hiOsilver]

Think probability here. The first group had snaps on 44 of 79, or a 56% probability. The 2nd group had snaps on 33 of 83, or a 40% probability. Look what I said previously: "The more valuable a name the more likely that there will be a WLS on it." Thus, your quick samples bear out what I said.

What is your chance of getting form.com or we.com now? Tiny. What will it be with WLS? Still tiny. Those are still killer domains, hardly "ordinary" in any way. Will the WLS be taken on each and every one of your 33? Probably. The fact that there is a Snap on it tells us that. But few, if any, off of this list of 33 will EVER drop. However, if WLS is implemented fairly, you should be able to pick up the WLS slots on at least some names of the quality in your list. Will you ever cash them in? Who knows. Your chances are small now and they will be small later.

Your 2nd list is all 2, 3 or 4 letter domains. Most random 2 or 3 letter .com domains are valuable, even if they are not words, even if they are not pronounceable. You have some chance of getting the random 3-letter .com's now. You will have a better chance of getting a 3-letter .com WLS 10 months before expiration (at least for a while) than you now have a chance of picking up a 3-letter .com now, unless you are willing to pay $3000 to $5000 at Pool or Namewinner. What good is it to you now to be able to get agp.com, for example, if you have to pay $5000 for it when it drops?

 

[JMJ]

But it all boils down to those that have the money to put snaps on these names now and are willing to pay $5000 for a name will be able to spend that $5000 on (lets shoot low) 120+ WLS. Now if they are in the position to spend that on a daily basis which I'm sure BD does thats 120+ WLS a day. I don't know about you but I go through the drop list every day and very rarely does my list have 120 names on it.

Now there is the argument of limiting how much whoever can buy but no matter how perfect that world would be I live in reality.

 

[lotsofissues]

Whatever.

WLS makes itself irrelevant.

 

[Rebies]

I don't understand. To me its simple and WLS is just a bad idea all around.

Right now we have Pool, NameWinner, Snapnames, etc. Its not a monopoly, but unfortunately this system favors BD and Ult.

Change it to WLS and there might be a chance of cutting BD and Ult's "monopoly" on buying sold domains. But overall its going to take everyone from all different backorder places and put them in one single location.

What do I predict happening? Its going to be a system like SnapNames, but the only difference is that your going to have to buy a snap ten times earlier then you do currently have to right now.

Its like this: If your in a college course and competing for an 'A' with a true bell curve you have a 10% chance of getting that 'A'. Now take twenty of those classes and put them together and with a true bell curve you have a 10% chance of getting an 'A'. Unfortunately, 'A's are not a limited commodity and can be given out at will. So you went from 10 people getting an 'A' to 200 people getting an 'A'.

With the domain system, those top domains will always be those top 10 names, NOT 10% of names. So when we take eNom, Snapnames, Namewinner, etc and put them all together we are looking at the same amount of names, just ten times the people going for them in the same place. Buying a name in that system will thus be ten times harder.

Yes, we might find a way to cut out BD and Ult, but we wind up being hurt from WLS too.

Jut the way I see it and understand it all

 

[DaddyHalbucks]

All the ramifications of the proposed WLS are truly unknown.

But, if it grants another monopoly to VeriSign, a company which was proven to be untrustworthy in the Sex.com case and perhaps others, how can it possibly be a good thing?

I vote: AGAINST WLS!

 

[toho]

Interesting thread Bob.

For WLS last year, still for WLS.
This is my choice.

If I started drop game in this year, I lost much more money.
I did not renew 25% of my domains. About 15% snapped before drop. over 35% someone register drop moment.
But I do not like try to sell US$10, US$65, US$150 such as small sales.
Pool is nice business model, but final price so crazy even NW.
Sometimes over end user price.

Buy domains, sell end user.
Sell 10 to 20 Class B domains for reseller, Buy 1 calss A domain.
Now I do that.

I do not sepnd my time for check drop list now.

Check carefully DNF sales thread, you can find good domains more cheaper than join Pool game.

Luxury game ? Extravagance hobby ?
We are not BD.
Be careful spend your money a lot for this game.

You should buy new washing machine for your wife.
You should go Ibiza with your girl friend.

I am domain geek, so I can say that.

WLS make us happy.

Game is exciting, but I feel dangerous after middle of March in this year.

- toho -

 

[Nexus]

WLS will be a HUGE improvement for those that know what they are doing, and aren't asleep when the starting bell fires. If the "small players" can't afford to subscribe to lists like Exody and do the research, I think its possible they shouldn't be "playing", and that we are in a nice "grace" period that has allowed things to be more "chaotic".

Some people are amassing names without any real clue what they'll eventually do with them. With every new drop-order company that opens up and starts doing well... sadly, its another opportunity for me to lose a name (I'm already vested and monitoring, now there's an open chance someone else will too). SnapNames just informed me this morning that I'd lost to Pool.

If only "SnapNames" and "NameWinner" were around, it'd be tolerable, but when "choice" or "competition" is a fancy way of saying "look at how many different bases you have to cover"... suddenly it equates to spending more time for the same result. I had to BUY a GoDaddy back-order just to see if a name was taken already (and it was). Getting ridiculous.

Current list of major/minor bases to cover:
> SnapNames - easy check $69 for use
> Pool - easy check $60/Auction for success
> NameWinner - easy check $8.95/Auction for success
> GoDaddy - purchase required/$18.95 for use
> eNom - purchase required/$99/per month/auction for use

For each auction you need to watch to make sure you're not outbid near the close, for each name you are trying to acquire. Difficult conditions given that even bidding by proxy runs the risk of having someone max bids on any/all of your names currently in the system. For balancing cost vs. return (if I had this name, then I wouldn't need this other one), it can make it difficult. For instance, you might say you wanted to bid a maximum of $100 for a collection of 10 names. If you're outbid by a dollar, you'd consider going up by that (though not $10). If outbid by $20, you'd probably give up on it. Makes for fairly irkesome conditions.

Everyone will have as much an opportunity at the WLS landrush as anyone. It's good SnapNames made scanning more difficult as WLS approaches. Competition on those slots will be tight. Network Solutions is already gearing up for pre-orders.

Yeah, I'm PRO-WLS. What we're experiencing now is only "competition" in so much as all the services are competing with each other for bragging rights and perceptions of performance. Serious customers quickly note that they aren't offered any real advantage picking one service versus another, when "features" and "payment" methods PALE are NOTHING if the service simply cannot deliver the expected result. When people "choose" any one drop-service... it is because they are too tired or strapped financially to cover the other services, and assume the one (or ones) they "choose" as the highest liklihood of success relative to how much they can invest. Rough waters to be sure. If a service opened today that started getting the best names 85% of the time, only communicated by e-mail and required people to call a number to give credit card details... it would quickly be the most popular service, even if it sent your domain names to the worst registrars in the business. Customers would hate it, but results talk... not the "choice".

"Choice", in my opinion, is finding a name that doesn't have a WLS sub, and back-ordering it at the registrar you prefer. Done deal. All your domains stay managed exactly where you want them. Will you even find the name? Scare tactics. No one knows. I'm getting up at 6:00 am this morning to make sure I get a park here in the business district of downtown Boston. There'll probably already be a line.

First come first serve. In all honesty, how the drop-game even works today, WLS just moves the clock so that people aren't staring at it every day.

~ Nexus