Thousands Of New Land Rushes To Come Thanks To ICANN!

[Seraphim]

Look, no one knows what effect a wave of new TLDs will have on current domain valuations, or even if the wave will ever come. I keep hearing the same faith based statements over and over again, "it will actually strengthen the value of .com, or it will only affect longtail .coms, it will pull down the value of .net and .org, etc., etc... If you're finding yourself chasing down optimistic one liners put forth by scared investors, then sit down and ask yourself if this game is really right for you. Understand that Frank Schilling doesn't know what will happen, no one does.

The real question is, how many development dollars will get dumped into these new TLDs, because old school domain investors are sitting 300,000 undeveloped .coms deep, and they have no interest in selling. The lack of liquidity in the market had a hand in all of this, not exclusively, but it was a force nonetheless. If .com does get hit in 10 years because development trends flood into new extensions, then you can look to your friendly domain consolidating giants for the answer as to why that happened.

Are you scared about the future of .com, if so start figuring out a way to add some real value to your portfolios by way of development. The more quality .coms out there for visitors to enjoy, the stronger our global brand becomes. I believe Google's greed is going to eventually break PPC, so gear up and step into the rolling fog.

I tip my hat to anyone that adds value to the .com brand. My 2 cents...

 

[acronym007]

Look, no one knows what effect a wave of new TLDs will have on current domain valuations, or even if the wave will ever come. I keep hearing the same faith based statements over and over again, "it will actually strengthen the value of .com, or it will only affect longtail .coms, it will pull down the value of .net and .org, etc., etc... If you're finding yourself chasing down optimistic one liners put forth by scared investors, then sit down and ask yourself if this game is really right for you. Understand that Frank Schilling doesn't know what will happen, no one does.

The real question is, how many development dollars will get dumped into these new TLDs, because old school domain investors are sitting 300,000 undeveloped .coms deep, and they have no interest in selling. The lack of liquidity in the market had a hand in all of this, not exclusively, but it was a force nonetheless. If .com does get hit in 10 years because development trends flood into new extensions, then you can look to your friendly domain consolidating giants for the answer as to why that happened.

Are you scared about the future of .com, if so start figuring out a way to add some real value to your portfolios by way of development. The more quality .coms out there for visitors to enjoy, the stronger our global brand becomes. I believe Google's greed is going to eventually break PPC, so gear up and step into the rolling fog.

I tip my hat to anyone that adds value to the .com brand. My 2 cents...

What extension is more developed than .com?

 

[Poker]

Also, something important to keep in mind is that often when it comes to investing, many people call "the top" way to early and as a result get shaken out of their investments, leave money on the table and get left behind. It happens all the time in the financial markets.

Markets always act to shake out the "scared money" and as a result redistribute wealth from the many to the few. The trick is to have confidence in what you invest in (otherwise don't invest in it) and then manage your exposure risk as you go forward by taking some profits, ideally to completely cover your risk/principle. Once you are "breakeven" or profitable in your investments you can enjoy the ride and see where it takes you.

 

[Seraphim]

What extension is more developed than .com?

The question isn't if .com can be dethroned in the short term, the question is can development migration towards other TLDs dilute it's value. I would say yes, most certainly. Could a rival TLD show up on the scene in the long term, well just look up the age of .com to answer that question.

 

[Rubber Duck]

What I'm wondering is how will this effect SEO on the search engines? If I have relevant sites and equal SEO with .car as well with .com when I type "car" into Google, will .car have a better chance of eventually having a stranglehold on the front page? Or if I type in "Coke" will it come up "Coke.coke" then "Coke.com" and everything else with the coke extension? This might not occur at first but it would make sense..I would guess that's up to the search engines to sort out.

The simple answer is that Search Algos will adapt to their environment to provide the answers the search site owners seek to achieve.

Also, something important to keep in mind is that often when it comes to investing, many people call "the top" way to early and as a result get shaken out of their investments, leave money on the table and get left behind. It happens all the time in the financial markets.

Markets always act to shake out the "scared money" and as a result redistribute wealth from the many to the few. The trick is to have confidence in what you invest in (otherwise don't invest in it) and then manage your exposure risk as you go forward by taking some profits, ideally to completely cover your risk/principle. Once you are "breakeven" or profitable in your investments you can enjoy the ride and see where it takes you.

Yeah, this is the key. With IDNs we have been hanging in the wind for years, but individual parked domains are coming home with the bacon, all we need is for the balance on the portfolios to shift in to positive territory and we can all sit back and relax.

The question isn't if .com can be dethroned in the short term, the question is can development migration towards other TLDs dilute it's value. I would say yes, most certainly. Could a rival TLD show up on the scene in the long term, well just look up the age of .com to answer that question.

Simple answer is No.

The only development that means anything is commericial end-user development. Domainers banging out mini-sites if anything detracts from the value of an extension. Real sites delivering real content and particularly those doing ecommerce are those that matter.

Commerce has billions of dollars advertising sunk into dot com, they are not about to jump ship unless something really earth shattering occurs.

 

[Seraphim]

Simple answer is No.

The only development that means anything is commericial end-user development. Domainers banging out mini-sites if anything detracts from the value of an extension. Real sites delivering real content and particularly those doing ecommerce are those that matter.

Commerce has billions of dollars advertising sunk into dot com, they are not about to jump ship unless something really earth shattering occurs.

No, development migration towards other TLDs couldn't dilute it's value, or no, .com couldn't be dethroned in the long term?

When I said development, I was referring to development over and beyond minisites. Commerce without question has billions stuck in .com, but web trends are finicky, and billion dollar brands are forged online overnight. Look at YouTube, MySpace, Facebook, look at blogging itself. Where the hell did did NetScape disappear to?

Internet commerce and it's financiers fill a void, they're buffalo hunters so to speak. Money follows the buffalo, not vice versa, and if you're telling me you know exactly where the buffalo are going, then let's get together a start up a billion dollar company. Where am I going with this, never say the word "impossible" when it comes to the internet. Rust on the old .com may be improbable today, but it's certainly not impossible later on down the road.

 

[Rubber Duck]

Both.

Funny how MySpace, Facebook and YouTube all use dot com.

If you had a billion dollars, you would almost certainly go dot com.

 

[Theo]

People fail to realize this is not going to be a free for all - so there won't be any "thousands of new land rushes". To get a new TLD, a newly formed "registry" would have to cough up $150,000 plus. To invest that much cash, they'd have to invest other money in infrastructure, support and to have a business plan and investors. Let alone that for specific premium TLD's there would be an auction among all interested parties. In other words, ICANN will milk this for what it's worth.

 

[Poker]

In other words, ICANN will milk this for what it's worth.

For much more than 'it's worth

 

[Seraphim]

Both.

Funny how MySpace, Facebook and YouTube all use dot com.

If you had a billion dollars, you would almost certainly go dot com.

Again, you missed the point. Money online is following web trends, it's not setting them. What's corporate innovation without a single web user, it's irrelevant creativity. The billion dollars you keep mentioning will be spent filling a void, not creating it.

I own 1500 generic .com's, but I never lure myself into a false sense of security, my making predictions in absolutes. Things change, forced adaptation is always just around the corner, especially in an industry where technology moves so fast. What the masses want or need today, could be completely different tomorrow, domains are not exempt from that reality.

.com is where my money is at. But I also see it's vulnerabilities as an investment, and there are many. Could these vulnerabilities be exploited over the short or long term, and end up hurting the value of my investment, it's possible. Saying no in absolute terms is foolish. I've got too much money on the table to let my legs get that stiff.

 

[Rubber Duck]

People fail to realize this is not going to be a free for all - so there won't be any "thousands of new land rushes". To get a new TLD, a newly formed "registry" would have to cough up $150,000 plus. To invest that much cash, they'd have to invest other money in infrastructure, support and to have a business plan and investors. Let alone that for specific premium TLD's there would be an auction among all interested parties. In other words, ICANN will milk this for what it's worth.

Yes, and even then you have to go through the approval process which is not a foregone conclusion and may cost a fortune in fancy lawyers.

Again, you missed the point. Money online is following web trends, it's not setting them. What's corporate innovation without a single web user, it's irrelevant creativity. The billion dollars you keep mentioning will be spent filling a void, not creating it.

I own 1500 generic .com's, but I never lure myself into a false sense of security, my making predictions in absolutes. Things change, forced adaptation is always just around the corner, especially in an industry where technology moves so fast. What the masses want or need today, could be completely different tomorrow, domains are not exempt from that reality.

.com is where my money is at. But I also see it's vulnerabilities as an investment, and there are many. Could these vulnerabilities be exploited over the short or long term, and end up hurting the value of my investment, it's possible. Saying no in absolute terms is foolish. I've got too much money on the table to let my legs get that stiff.

Well I own more than that and mine will be much more generic than yours, but none of them are in English and very few in Latin characters, but most of them are dot com.

You mentioned the billion dollars.

What you seem to fail to grasp is that the big guys have already sunk billions into this name space.

Wall Street could up sticks and go to Wisconsin. There is nothing to stop that happening. Is it going to happen? Well in my estimation probably not, but if you want to start speculating in Wisconsin on the back of this rumour I have just started, don't let me stop you.

 

[peekaboo]

does anyone know whether companies like namemedia & demandmedia would/could jump on this and create bunch of extensions and supporting registries?

they love to act like the pioneers, they have the financial means, and they the technological know how (or at least can buy one), so what will prevent them from chasing these buffaloes?

 

[Gregcyber]

After ICANN approved open TLD to the highest bidder... Why does microsoft want to spend 40 Billion on a .com?

 

[Rubber Duck]

does anyone know whether companies like namemedia & demandmedia would/could jump on this and create bunch of extensions and supporting registries?

they love to act like the pioneers, they have the financial means, and they the technological know how (or at least can buy one), so what will prevent them from chasing these buffaloes?

They could, but results to date on the registeries they have an interest even, haven't been that startling. I am sure they would be in for a few, but common sense would temper their exubberance.

After ICANN approved open TLD to the highest bidder... Why does microsoft want to spend 40 Billion on a .com?

I am not sure that Microsoft ever intended to do anything other than attempt to destablise Yahoo! Taking Yahoo out of the equation was definitely on the cards, whether they ever intended to stump up $40 Billion is a mute point.

 

[Seraphim]

Yes, and even then you have to go through the approval process which is not a foregone conclusion and may cost a fortune in fancy lawyers.



Well I own more than that and mine will be much more generic than yours, but none of them are in English and very few in Latin characters, but most of them are dot com.

You mentioned the billion dollars.

What you seem to fail to grasp is that the big guys have already sunk billions into this name space.

Wall Street could up sticks and go to Wisconsin. There is nothing to stop that happening. Is it going to happen? Well in my estimation probably not, but if you want to start speculating in Wisconsin on the back of this rumour I have just started, don't let me stop you.

Seriously, you own IDN, no way... I'm a quality over quantity guy myself, but we'll save the IDN could be, would be, should be discussion for another thread.

Bad analogies aside, isn't Wall Street more comparable to ICANN, it isn't a commodity, .com actually is. We are discussing .com right?

Look at .pl in Google trends. What you're seeing there on that chart, had an effect on the value of generic Polish language .coms. When this particular ccTLD became more affordable a couple of years ago, you guessed it, the Polish market dumped .com, and dove straight into .pl. So this untouchable talk is nonsense, it's complete BS. My whole point was this eyes wide shut approach is bad form. If it helps you sleep better at night, then so be it. Not my style, despite being exclusively a .com guy.

 

[Rubber Duck]

Seriously, you own IDN, no way... I'm a quality over quantity guy myself, but we'll save the IDN could be, would be, should be discussion for another thread.

Bad analogies aside, isn't Wall Street more comparable to ICANN, it isn't a commodity, .com actually is. We are discussing .com right?

Look at .pl in Google trends. What you're seeing there on that chart, had an effect on the value of generic Polish language .coms. When this particular ccTLD became more affordable a couple of years ago, you guessed it, the Polish market dumped .com, and dove straight into .pl. So this untouchable talk is nonsense, it's complete BS. My whole point was this eyes wide shut approach is bad form. If it helps you sleep better at night, then so be it. Not my style, despite being exclusively a .com guy.

I would love to have that debate. Tell you what I'll accept valuation for the purposes of this head butting competition at 1% of the English equivalent and still beat you hands down. But as you said another thread.

Bad Analogy? Wall Street is a Market and ICANN is effectively a market regulator and dot is Brand not a commodity. Beats me what we are actually discussing!

ccTLDs make a lot of sense in local markets. Nobody is disputing that I hope. So do using local languages I would expect. Can you imagine anyone coming to Traffics and doing a sales pitch in Mandarin. That is exactly what most American feel they can do in Asia. When it comes to be being shut eyed that is really going down when people think that only names in the languages of about 8% percent of the global population have value.

 

[Wired]

Does anyone know what a reg fee will cost? $8.99 or $50,000?

 

[Seraphim]

I would love to have that debate. Tell you what I'll accept valuation for the purposes of this head butting competition at 1% of the English equivalent and still beat you hands down. But as you said another thread.

Bad Analogy? Wall Street is a Market and ICANN is effectively a market regulator and dot is Brand not a commodity. Beats me what we are actually discussing!

ccTLDs make a lot of sense in local markets. Nobody is disputing that I hope. So do using local languages I would expect. Can you imagine anyone coming to Traffics and doing a sales pitch in Mandarin. That is exactly what most American feel they can do in Asia. When it comes to be being shut eyed that is really going down when people think that only names in the languages of about 8% percent of the global population have value.

Do you plan on using a 40 year projected valuation model again? My Dad owns a moon rock, can I toss that in with my pile too?

 

[Rubber Duck]

I gave you the terms I would accept you challenge on. Translate to English, make a valuation and then divide by 100. Cannot say fairer than that, but I have to warn you most of them are single word commercial generics, and those that aren't tend to be single characters from major scripts or names of big cities or countries or stuff like that in the relevant languages. And we ain't talking Dickinson here.

40 year projections would probably mean Chinese and Arabic being worth more than English. I have never suggested that would be the case. But the first language English speaking population of the globe is about 350 Million out 5 Billion. And most of them are getting poorer by the minute.

Does anyone know what a reg fee will cost? $8.99 or $50,000?

You are talking a bare minimum of $50K and that would just be the fee to ICANN. The contractual obligations could easily run to seven figures.

 

[Seraphim]

I gave you the terms I would accept you challenge on. Translate to English, make a valuation and then divide by 100. Cannot say fairer than that, but I have to warn you most of them are single word commercial generics, and those that aren't tend to be single characters from major scripts or names of big cities or countries or stuff like that in the relevant languages. And we ain't talking Dickinson here.

40 year projections would probably mean Chinese and Arabic being worth more than English. I have never suggested that would be the case. But the first language English speaking population of the globe is about 350 Million out 5 Billion. And most of them are getting poorer by the minute.

You are talking a bare minimum of $50K and that would just be the fee to ICANN. The contractual obligations could easily run to seven figures.

Yeah sure RubberDick, what else? Do you want to factor in Mongolia becoming the world's only superpower, and Braille replacing Japanese Kanji? Do you want to toss in a few of your Pokemon cards, while factoring in the earth running out of trees?