Directory business loses its way
By Salamander Davoudi
Published: February 12 2009 17:28 | Last updated: February 12 2009 17:28
They have been a permanent fixture on kitchen counters and in bottom drawers for decades but times are changing for directories such as the UKâs Yellow Pages.
The global directories sector is facing a crisis due to collapsing valuations, a worsening economic and competitive environment, and concerns that its business model is no longer viable in the internet age.
âThere is a high probability that some of the directory companies will go bust,â says one analyst.
Worries about the sectorâs sustainability â and, in particular, its high debt levels â have weighed heavily on stocks over the past 12 months.
Shares in Italyâs Seat are down almost 80 per cent, UK-based Yell has fallen almost 90 per cent and Franceâs Pages Jaunes has seen its share price halve. US directory stocks have fared even worse, with shares in Idearc nosediving 99.5 per cent since last February and RH Donnelley down 98.9 per cent.
This week Moodyâs, the ratings agency, cut both US companiesâ ratings and warned that each may be likely to pursue a pre-packaged bankruptcy or distressed debt exchange as they struggle to overcome these debt loads.
The equity in these companies now has little value. JPMorgan estimates that last September equity represented just 3 per cent of the enterprise value of RH Donnelley and Idearc.
Enterprise value is a measure of what the market believes a companyâs operations are worth. It is calculated as market capitalisation plus debt and any preferred shares minus cash.
âThe market is saying that some of these directories companies are bust and the banks may end up owning the company. There is no value there for shareholders,â says Charles Peacock, analyst at Teathers.
Meanwhile, concerns are weighing that the business model may be redundant in the internet age. The online offering is still in its infancy for many of these companies. In 2007 it accounted for 20 per cent of Yell UKâs revenues, 34 per cent of Pages Jaunes and 9 per cent of Idearc, according to JPMorgan.
The sector is experiencing revenue downgrades due to a steady migration of advertisers from print to online, where margins are often lower. Small to medium-sized businesses, their core client base, are also being badly hit by the economic downturn. Last week Yell, the heavily-indebted publisher of the UKâs Yellow Pages, said it expected a 12 per cent drop in sales in the three months to March due to an âunprecedentedâ drop in advertising business.
The directory business model was once seen as rock solid with its good cash generation and low capital expenditure. Companies were leveraged heavily, with as much as seven times net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda).
Listed directories businesses will have an average of 5.7 times net debt to ebitda this year, according to JPMorgan. This number falls to 4.8 times for the European stocks alone.
Such levels in todayâs climate are nothing short of âludicrousâ, say analysts. Other media sub-sectors such as advertising agencies and professional publishers are trading, on average, at well under two times.
JPMorgan forecasts that for all of 2008 Yell would be leveraged at 4.8 times, Seat at 5.1 times, Pages Jaunes at 3.6 times and RH Donnelly at 6.9 times.
âThey were viewed as companies that would be able to pay off high levels of debt. But concerns are now growing about these levels, the cash flow required to service them and their profits,â says Mr Peacock.
In response, companies including Seat, Yell and Idearc have suspended dividends. Most have implemented cost-savings programmes and some, including Seat and Yell, have renegotiated their debt.
But while such action may reduce margin pressure it does not solve the bigger problem of hefty debt repayments and the urgent need to refinance for most.
âThe capital structure is from a different era and this is what has damaged US directory firms and some of the European directories companies,â one analyst said
âIf you have that capital structure in an economic downturn and if you start to lose revenue, you lose profit. The leverage ratios go up and bank default swaps go up and the value of equity gets squeezed to nothing. It is a vicious cycle,â he added