Partnercash.com sells for $110k ??

[DaddyHalbucks]

dwrixon wrote:

With IDN you follow much the same process, except there is a severe risk of linguistic errors.

YES, AND THAT IS ONE OF THE MANY PROBLEMS WITH IDNs.

For Chinese we have used Google Scores, and more latterly 3721.com, Baidu.com and Overture to give us an idea of what to register.

Arabic proved the most difficult as the level of development in Arabic at the time was almost none existent. We picked some real winners, but have got quite a lot of duck eggs as well. Hindi, is only really starting to get going, so the Jury is still out on these.

If you are talking new registrations then the opportunities in IDN are certainly better than traditional dot coms.

I DISAGREE. I REGISTER GOOD .COMs EVERY SINGLE DAY.

HAVE THERE BEEN *ANY* SIGNIFICANT AFTERMARKET SALES OF IDNs, OR ARE THE ONLY PEOPLE BUYING THEM SPECULATORS?

If you are talking Daddy's language where you are ploughing in with $3-$5K a shot, then obviously you can make a lot of money if you know what you are doing. Could also be a pretty quick way of loosing a small fortune.

YOU CAN SAY THAT ABOUT OTHER INVESTMENTS TOO. KNOWING WHAT YOU ARE DOING IS KEY.

The advantage of sticking to high value domains is of course smaller renewal costs, but these days you are talking about $7 rather than $35 back in 1998.

AFTERMARKET .COMs ARE MORE EXPENSIVE BECAUSE THERE IS A DECENT MARKET.

Well, it is a mis-quote of Jack Kennedy who got out of the stock market in 1929 after being asked what to buy, by the Shoe-Shine Boy. Principle still holds strong though. Another version is:

When the last Bear turns Bullish, its time to sell.

I DONT BELIEVE WE ARE ANYWHERE NEAR THE ULTIMATE BULL MARKET FOR .COM; I THINK SCHWARTZ AND I BOTH AGREE THAT WILL COME IN 5-10 YEARS.

 

[mole]

I DONT BELIEVE WE ARE ANYWHERE NEAR THE ULTIMATE BULL MARKET FOR .COM; I THINK SCHWARTZ AND I BOTH AGREE THAT WILL COME IN 5-10 YEARS.

In 5-10 years time, .XXX will be deep-entrenched as the premium red light district of the Web, .BIZ the Wall Street of the Internet, and .COM the unwilling bed fellow with the former two :-D

 

[namestrands]

.xxx hmm I would not like to think so..

bottom line is that .com is prime realestate.. and until the internet as we know it changes, then this will always be the case. The secondary markets are exactly that "SECONDARY" most Other TLDs are worth less without the .com.. this is due to many factors including holywood.. we all know .com to be the generic domain extension..

 

[Rubber Duck]

DaddyHalbucks wrote:

I DISAGREE. I REGISTER GOOD .COMs EVERY SINGLE DAY.

Well, if they are not already registered, it suggests that there is no great demand for these names at present. Obviously, a clever speculator is one that can identify where there is likely to be future demand, however, until the investment is realised, the jury is out.

HAVE THERE BEEN *ANY* SIGNIFICANT AFTERMARKET SALES OF IDNs, OR ARE THE ONLY PEOPLE BUYING THEM SPECULATORS?

No, probably not a great deal. Largely speculators at the moment, but isn't that where the dot com market was 5 years ago?

There is, however, clearly evidence of significant new registrations and site development. Many in these markets probably still have little knowledge of the Aftermarkets as there are no domain auctions that adequately cater for it as yet, but they are coming.


AFTERMARKET .COMs ARE MORE EXPENSIVE BECAUSE THERE IS A DECENT MARKET.

Yes, basic economics. Nothing is worth anything until people are queueing up with hard cash.

I DONT BELIEVE WE ARE ANYWHERE NEAR THE ULTIMATE BULL MARKET FOR .COM; I THINK SCHWARTZ AND I BOTH AGREE THAT WILL COME IN 5-10 YEARS.

I think in terms of over all growth of newly registered domains, this is undoubtedly true. It is not, however, absolutely certain that future growth of new registration will be dominated in the way that it has been recently, simply because the choice in dot coms is progressively becoming more limited and therefore people are looking at other extensions.

I don't seriously believe that the other extensions will ever overtake dot com, either in the total registered or prices in the Aftermarket, but the perception that it is dot com or bust, may weaken over time. It certainly cannot get much stronger than it is now! Obviously, if other extensions are percieved as viable alternatives, then the premium that can be commanded by dot coms will not continue to grow exponentially. Indeed, it may well diminish. For this reason my personal guess is that there will be a cooling in dot com aftermarket within 2-3 years.

Furthermore, type-in traffic is currently one of the main drivers at present. My view is that longer-term, type-in traffic is likely to diminish in the US market as users become more sophisticated and will rely on search more frequently than type-in. I certainly see no prospect of exponential growth in type-in traffic.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[mole]

I certainly see no prospect of exponential growth in type-in traffic.

I totally agree. Web navigation tools are getting more sophisticated by the day.

I have done a couple of keyword tests with Adwords and relying purely on type-ins. It seems the average ratio in my category is something like 20:1, search:type-in in terms of referral potential.

 

[Rubber Duck]

I totally agree. Web navigation tools are getting more sophisticated by the day.

I have done a couple of keyword tests with Adwords and relying purely on type-ins. It seems the average ratio in my category is something like 20:1, search:type-in in terms of referral potential.

Sounds interesting but I have to say that I don't really understand what you are saying. Would it be possibe to elaborate a little?

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

.xxx hmm I would not like to think so..

bottom line is that .com is prime realestate.. and until the internet as we know it changes, then this will always be the case. The secondary markets are exactly that "SECONDARY" most Other TLDs are worth less without the .com.. this is due to many factors including holywood.. we all know .com to be the generic domain extension..

Problem with terminology here. Secondary Markets in Dave Wrixon speak refer to transactions done after the domain is initially registered.

Don't get that bit about other TLDs being worth less without the dot com? I don't normally throw-in the dot com when I make a sale?

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[DaddyHalbucks]

Obviously, if other extensions are percieved as viable alternatives, then the premium that can be commanded by dot coms will not continue to grow exponentially. Indeed, it may well diminish. For this reason my personal guess is that there will be a cooling in dot com aftermarket within 2-3 years.

Furthermore, type-in traffic is currently one of the main drivers at present. My view is that longer-term, type-in traffic is likely to diminish in the US market as users become more sophisticated and will rely on search more frequently than type-in. I certainly see no prospect of exponential growth in type-in traffic.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

OK, while we are making predictions here, let me make mine, and let me make it clear.

I predict the exact opposite of Dave (above).

.COM MARKET
.COM will not cool, but will become white hot.

TYPE-IN TRAFFIC
Type-in traffic will not diminish, but will grow. Users will NOT become more sophisicated, most web surfers will still love online dating, chat, porn, gambling, and all the same profitable crap which they love today.

SEARCH TOOLS
SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS such as MS will create more sophisicated search tools, but they will also get greedy about stealing that search traffic by diverting it for their own purposes which will undermine the effectiveness of their tools, so users will still use type-ins to go where they want.

IDNs
IDNs will die. Actually, they will never take off. The latest browser versions will block them, for security reasons. Turn on IDNs at your own risk, and if you know how to configure them, which most users won't know. The root servers may block them too.

 

[Ed30]

Customers aren't sophisticated. Never have been and never will be. Got to agree with DHB. The trend for greater .com growth is proven, its happening now as we speak.

 

[Rubber Duck]

OK, while we are making predictions here, let me make mine, and let me make it clear.

I predict the exact opposite of Dave (above).

.COM MARKET
.COM will not cool, but will become white hot.

TYPE-IN TRAFFIC
Type-in traffic will not diminish, but will grow. Users will NOT become more sophisicated, most web surfers will still love online dating, chat, porn, gambling, and all the same profitable crap which they love today.

SEARCH TOOLS
SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS such as MS will create more sophisicated search tools, but they will also get greedy about stealing that search traffic by diverting it for their own purposes which will undermine the effectiveness of their tools, so users will still use type-ins to go where they want.

IDNs
IDNs will die. Actually, they will never take off. The latest browser versions will block them, for security reasons. Turn on IDNs at your own risk, and if you know how to configure them, which most users won't know. The root servers may block them too.

Daddy,

Thanks for that. Probably time to open the debate to the floor.

Does anyone else have strong opinions on the development of the dot com and IDN markets?

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[furca]

IDN markets? -- agreed that It will die. Unless they expand the average american keyboard, so you don't have to use alt codes :S

 

[namestrands]

The internet/computers will converge with TV .. the extensions will be phased out in favour of a non generic naming conventions. But for the next 5 years .com will still rule the roost.. We will look back in 10 years and laugh at how we used to type in URLs..

I have been using the internet for the last 10 years and I am amazed at how fast it has evolved.. do you think we will all still be doing the same things in the next 10 years?

 

[diverge]

My prediction:
Within 2 years, SOMEONE will invent a clean, easy, and effective artificially intelligent search engine with superior crawling capability that will NOT show irrelevent results, NOT show porn or filth to minors, and understand english questions and typos without even so much as a "Did you mean..."? It will be fast, easy, and likely integrated into browsers by default or as an very-easy-to-install toolbar. Within 3 years, 90-95% of the Internet will use this search engine exclusively (the address bar may even become obsolete), and type-ins and domain names will become irrelevant (gasp!). At that point, we will all be clawing for the remaining 5-10%. Content will be king -- and all else will be irrelevent. If you aren't developing your domains today, you too will be irrelevent tomorrow.

(Point of fact: Google is practically there. Think how far they've come in the last 3 years, and tell me they won't accomplish this in the next three. If they don't do it, A9, Ask, or Yahoo! will gladly take their market share.)

 

[Rubber Duck]

The internet/computers will converge with TV .. the extensions will be phased out in favour of a non generic naming conventions. But for the next 5 years .com will still rule the roost.. We will look back in 10 years and laugh at how we used to type in URLs..

I have been using the internet for the last 10 years and I am amazed at how fast it has evolved.. do you think we will all still be doing the same things in the next 10 years?

Sorry, I was going to stay out of this, but I have to say that whilst this has been muted elsewhere it is the most ludicrous argument I have heard on this subject.

Yes, there will be evolutions in the devices used to access the internet. Integration with televison will be largely unnecessary as you will be able to get television through your computer anyway. There will, however, be greater development of internet access through mobile devices.

As for doing away with name extensions, that is rediculous. At the moment, it is possible to have a name in probably several hundred extensions. You are suggesting that it would be limited to a single registry, just when the demand for domain names is going to go through the roof.

Surely these very clever guys like Rick Schwartz and Daddy Halbucks wouldn't be keen on investing tens if not hundreds of thousands in a dot com domain, if they were about to become obsolete. The legal implications of such a move would be horrendous.

Furthermore, some form of address system is fundamental. Telephones have changed an awful lot as well, but we still dial numbers just as we did some 100 years ago, and nobody seems to be seriously suggesting that we will doing anything very different in 20 years time!

Hope I have not cause too much offence.

Dave Wrixon

My prediction:
Within 2 years, SOMEONE will invent a clean, easy, and effective artificially intelligent search engine with superior crawling capability that will NOT show irrelevent results, NOT show porn or filth to minors, and understand english questions and typos without even so much as a "Did you mean..."? It will be fast, easy, and likely integrated into browsers by default or as an very-easy-to-install toolbar. Within 3 years, 90-95% of the Internet will use this search engine exclusively (the address bar may even become obsolete), and type-ins and domain names will become irrelevant (gasp!). At that point, we will all be clawing for the remaining 5-10%. Content will be king -- and all else will be irrelevent. If you aren't developing your domains today, you too will be irrelevent tomorrow.

(Point of fact: Google is practically there. Think how far they've come in the last 3 years, and tell me they won't accomplish this in the next three. If they don't do it, A9, Ask, or Yahoo! will gladly take their market share.)

I have to agree with a lot of this but frankly the idea that the address bar and domain names will become obsolete is a bit difficult to grasp. If we got to that point, we would have no choice in where we went for information or indeed products and Google would effectively have usurped ICANNs role.

I do, however, agree that it will result in a drastic reduction in type-in traffic, which is much in line with the argument that I was trying to make earlier.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[mole]

Within 2 years, SOMEONE will invent a clean, easy, and effective artificially intelligent search engine with superior crawling capability that will NOT show irrelevent results, NOT show porn or filth to minors, and understand english questions and typos without even so much as a "Did you mean..."? It will be fast, easy, and likely integrated into browsers by default or as an very-easy-to-install toolbar.

Do you mean the Semantic Web? :-D

 

[Rubber Duck]

IDN markets? -- agreed that It will die. Unless they expand the average american keyboard, so you don't have to use alt codes :S

Could you explain how altering the American keyboard would have the slightest effect on the IDN market?

Americans are clearly not interested in IDN. That means in the Universe as you know it, nobody is interested in IDN!

America is going to have to get real! Real soon! At the moment it has a lamentable trade position, especially with one of the world's largest and most dynamic economies. All it does is bleat about the exchange rate with the Yuan.

The problem is that eventually, all those little green credit notes that you are handing out so glibbly will have to backed by the goods and services they notionally represent, or the supply of money from the far east and elsewhere that it is financing the consumer boom in the US will dry up.

Sure America has produce some wonderful products, but it is largely either unwilling or unmotivated to export anything that is likely to be in demand in what is effectively now your most important trading partner, China.

Americans will point to the relative size of their economy, but that is flattered by an uncompetitive exchange rate, not only with China, but frankly with much of the world, particularly Asia.

If you think I am a US basher, you're mistaken. The world is much safer and more secure when are Anglo-Saxon cousins are in a strong and influential postion, but at the end of the day it is down to economics. The strength of the American economy has got the West through a number of very serious crisis in the past, and its demise would be a serious threat to all western demoncracies. However, in order to prosper in the modern era, you are going to have to do better than just export Coca Cola and democratic ideology.

The America has traditionally been very strong in Marketing, but in order to do the sell in the modern world, it is going to be necessary to start doing it in a culturally relevant context. The internet provides a wonderful tool for doing this and the Americans have huge advantages in this area, but if you think that the Chinese are going to start typing English keywords into Google to find US products, you are all going to be seriously mistaken!

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[sasquatch]

There is no doubt in my mind that IDN won't take off sooner or later. The world's local markets are too vast and potentially fruitful for capitalists not to engage with. In fact it is painfully obvious that most world's needs are not presently served with the current system. Think about China, India, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Germany, France, Spain, Greece... Africa, South America, etc. How many potential customers are underserved?

If the money can be made in certain things, you better believe there will be those trying to make money off of it. Despite from what you've heard before, it is the axiom "act globally, think locally" that is, and will be, the actual driving force for the foreseable future.

Finally, I think the best comparison is to be made with the old typewriters. Pretty much every country in this world have had typewriters corresponding to their own local alphabet. In addition, even today, as in right now, you can input any locally spelled words or terms in Google and it will bring up the results, so my question is if you can search it in Google, why can't you search it in your browser bar? To date I am yet to hear a logically persuasive answer that makes any sense.

 

[Rubber Duck]

There is no doubt in my mind that IDN won't take off sooner or later. The world's local markets are too vast and potentially fruitful for capitalists not to engage with. In fact it is painfully obvious that most world's needs are not presently served with the current system. Think about China, India, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Germany, France, Spain, Greece... Africa, South America, etc. How many potential customers are underserved?

If the money can be made in certain things, you better believe there will be those trying to make money off of it. Despite from what you've heard before, it is the axiom "act globally, think locally" that is, and will be, the actual driving force for the foreseable future.

Finally, I think the best comparison is to be made with the old typewriters. Pretty much every country in this world have had typewriters corresponding to their own local alphabet. In addition, even today, as in right now, you can input any locally spelled words or terms in Google and it will bring up the results, so my question is if you can search it in Google, why can't you search it in your browser bar? To date I am yet to hear a logically persuasive answer that makes any sense.

Couldn't agree more! One of the reasons cited by the United Nations for wanting to assume control of the internet is that the internet doesn't meet the needs of much of the developing world. In China, particularly there is significant political imputus to do something about this.

There is already huge evidence that China, Japan and Korea have a huge demand for local keyword searches and that companies are prepared to make substantial investments to drive searches to their websites. As in the west, paid keyword searches will prove an expensive alternative to type-in and search engine generated traffic. Ultimately, companies will want to own domains that drive traffic to the their web content and sites will increasingly reflect local branding. Western keywords and numbers are simply not sufficiently memorable to serve this purpose. Even for email, individuals and companies will want to see their names and brands expressed in local characters.

The DNS already deals with IDN effectively. The main problems lie with the distribution and adoption of browser and mail clients that handle these domains effectively. The launch of IE 7.0 is a clear expression of intention by Microsoft to address these markets. Microsoft's belated commitment is further evidenced by the indexing of Arabic and Hindi. This action is a consequence of a massive erosion of its dominance of the browser market, which until recently it has taken for granted.

Firefox has scared the crap out of them by taking a large share of the market in a matter of a few months. OK. to date this has been largely down to with poor functionality and securtiy issues. However, Microsoft are also painfully aware that their failure to address the IDN issue in an effective and timely manner, threatens to make them irrelevant as browser provider in the developing world. The developing world has also showed a huge interest in Linux. With the intractible delays on the launch of Windows Vista (or Longhorn as it has been referred to since most of us were in short trousers), the whole Microsoft Empire was starting to look as though it was loosing its grip.

Frankly whether the likes of Rick Schwartz and Daddy Hallbrucks take an interest in IDN, in longer-term will make no difference at all. The rest of the world, with some assistance from some of Americas more progressive companies, is rapidly developing its own internet infrastrure, which will eventually include everything from Domain Auctions to PPC services. The extent to which western domain speculators choose to get involved, will affect only the timing not the ultimate outcome. There are massive opportunities, and someone will take advantage of them. If the US domaining community decide to pass on this, then they will only be able to look back at what might have been! Of course for those that are making so much money already that it doesn't matter, their lifestyles will not be significantly impaired as a consequence. Whether that applies to the majority of subscribers to this site, however, is open to question.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[DaddyHalbucks]

There is no doubt in my mind that IDN won't take off sooner or later. The world's local markets are too vast and potentially fruitful for capitalists not to engage with. In fact it is painfully obvious that most world's needs are not presently served with the current system. Think about China, India, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Germany, France, Spain, Greece... Africa, South America, etc. How many potential customers are underserved?

If the money can be made in certain things, you better believe there will be those trying to make money off of it. Despite from what you've heard before, it is the axiom "act globally, think locally" that is, and will be, the actual driving force for the foreseable future.

Finally, I think the best comparison is to be made with the old typewriters. Pretty much every country in this world have had typewriters corresponding to their own local alphabet. In addition, even today, as in right now, you can input any locally spelled words or terms in Google and it will bring up the results, so my question is if you can search it in Google, why can't you search it in your browser bar? To date I am yet to hear a logically persuasive answer that makes any sense.

The size of the world market is irrelevant.

One question is: will there be one internet, or two internets? Because it appears IDNs are incompatible with our internet. IDNs can serve as a perfect platform for smammers, phishers, spyware, viruses, etc..

If IDNs are incompatible, they will be blocked. Big companies such as MS and eBay will fight IDNs. Do you think MS and eBay carry any weight in the world of ecommerce and internet standards? US corporate high tech will fight IDNs.

So, the world will either develop its own internet, or they will use our standards eventually.

Now, if you really want to have a wonderful dream, dream about the day that PC manufacturers such as Dell realize they need an IDN compatible keyboard.

I imagine the conversation in the Dell boardroom will go something like this:

MR. DELL: OK, we need to discuss IDN keyboards.

MFR. HEAD: Mr. Dell, you should be informed that it will cost tens of millions of dollars to re-tool for IDN keyboards, plus it will cost millions of dollars to get new shipping boxes, plus cost unknown millions in ongoing highing shipping costs because of greater weight. And our liability will increase because we are opeing a Pandora's box for offshore cyber theives, customers will be vulnerable to scams, spyware, and viruses --and ongoing tech support costs will also rise. And, it's not clear that our core customers in the US want IDNs.

MR. DELL: Ahem. Will IDNs make a few domainers alot of money?

MFR HEAD: What's a domainer?

CFO: Why, yes. A few domain speculators will get very rich if we do this. You will be fulfilling some get rich fantasies, big time!

MR. DELL: Well, then , damn the costs, and the hell with the liability, let's do it!

 

[Rubber Duck]

The size of the world market is irrelevant.

One question is: will there be one internet, or two internets? Because it appears IDNs are incompatible with our internet. IDNs can serve as a perfect platform for smammers, phishers, spyware, viruses, etc..

If IDNs are incompatible, they will be blocked. Big companies such as MS and eBay will fight IDNs. Do you think MS and eBay carry any weight in the world of ecommerce and internet standards? US corporate high tech will fight IDNs.

So, the world will either develop its own internet, or they will use our standards eventually.

Now, if you really want to have a wonderful dream, dream about the day that PC manufacturers such as Dell realize they need an IDN compatible keyboard.

I imagine the conversation in the Dell boardroom will go something like this:

MR. DELL: OK, we need to discuss IDN keyboards.

MFR. HEAD: Mr. Dell, you should be informed that it will cost tens of millions of dollars to re-tool for IDN keyboards, plus it will cost millions of dollars to get new shipping boxes, plus cost unknown millions in ongoing highing shipping costs because of greater weight. And our liability will increase because we are opeing a Pandora's box for offshore cyber theives, customers will be vulnerable to scams, spyware, and viruses --and ongoing tech support costs will also rise. And, it's not clear that our core customers in the US want IDNs.

MR. DELL: Ahem. Will IDNs make a few domainers alot of money?

MFR HEAD: What's a domainer?

CFO: Why, yes. A few domain speculators will get very rich if we do this. You will be fulfilling some get rich fantasies, big time!

MR. DELL: Well, then , damn the costs, and the hell with the liability, let's do it!

Daddy,

As their existing equipment will already cope with 99% of the input of local users in these strange other world's, what is actually being sought is to make the other 1%, i.e the domain name consistent as well. You might need new equipment to be effective as an IDN speculator, personally I find cutting and pasting more than adequate. These strange alien cultures already have all the equipment that they will ever need! Nobody is asking Main Steet America to start using the internet in Chinese.

If MS are so intent on blocking IDNs, why are they now rushing out IE 7.0 with IDN support. Yes, they have dragged their feet on this, but they have succumbed, just as everyone else will have to do so. As for smammers, phishers, spyware, viruses... They seem to be getting on just fine without IDN.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

 

[DaddyHalbucks]

Daddy,

As their existing equipment will already cope with 99% of the input of local users in these strange other world's, what is actually being sought is to make the other 1%, i.e the domain name consistent as well. You might need new equipment to be effective as an IDN speculator, personally I find cutting and pasting more than adequate. These strange alien cultures already have all the equipment that they will ever need! Nobody is asking Main Steet America to start using the internet in Chinese.

If MS are so intent on blocking IDNs, why are they now rushing out IE 7.0 with IDN support. Yes, they have dragged their feet on this, but they have succumbed, just as everyone else will have to do so. As for smammers, phishers, spyware, viruses... They seem to be getting on just fine without IDN.

Best Regards
Dave Wrixon

Yes, you are asking Main Street America to use Chinese!

Because, when Mary Jane in Peoria clicks on a link that looks like it belongs to an American company, she will really be going to phishers in China.

If phishing is a problem now, how will IDNs effect it? We all know it will make the problem MUCH worse.

MS was perhaps a poor example. MS could give a rat's ass about internet security most of the time. But, IDNs will likely prove a headache, even for MS.

IDNs have to die, because they are such a huge security risk. I don't know exactly how or when or where or by whom, but they will be killed off, or at least segregated from civilization. You have my permission to start a second internet just for IDNs.

If the goal is a single internet that is safe for e-commerce, IDNs don't play any role. Think about it; it CAN'T work.